Gold and silver were the hottest assets at the beginning of this year. However, as we pass the midpoint of 2026, it feels almost irrelevant to bring them up. Gold prices, which approached $5,600 per ounce during intraday trading in late January, are now repeatedly testing the $4,000 mark. Three months ago, in this column, I suggested that the price was not at a bottom and could fall to the $4,000 level; it has finally reached that range.

Gold prices fell by more than 12% in June. This decline is the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. Even in China and India, the world's most gold-loving nations, the premiums that were attached to gold bars until recently have disappeared. Instead of premiums, transactions are now taking place at a discount compared to international benchmark prices. Silver prices are also failing to escape the downward trend. The strength of metals, including copper, has generally faded.

This phenomenon is not limited to the commodities market. The decline in Bitcoin, which has faced a so-called crypto winter since the end of last year, is even more pronounced. Investors around the world are turning their backs on these representative alternative assets.

Why has the market changed so rapidly? How long will the weakness of these alternative assets last? Where is the bottom? Today, we have taken an in-depth look at the gold market. We can identify two key points that provide decisive hints on how the market will move going forward.

First, who is selling off gold, and who is quietly picking it up during this bargain sale? Individuals, who only need to make a profit from gold, continue to sell. However, central banks, which have other reasons for holding gold, have recently begun to quietly increase their purchase volumes again.

Since the war in Iran, money has been flowing out like a receding tide from gold spot ETFs, which are representative indicators of investment sentiment toward gold. In particular, the selling trend continues to this day in the New York and Asian stock markets. Individuals and institutions that have made significant profits from gold investments have been leaving the market for several months. On the other hand, the Central Bank of Poland, which was considering a sale in March when individuals were offloading their gold, actually bought an additional 14 tons of gold in April—far from selling. Türkiye, which sold 52 tons of gold because it needed quick dollar liquidity, has also become quiet. And, above all, China. While Chinese individuals are generally losing interest in gold, the People's Bank of China has bought the largest amount of gold since January 2024. Furthermore, according to a survey by the World Gold Council, 45% of central banks intend to increase their gold holdings this year. This is the largest scale in history. Since the problematic year of 2022, a structural demand that did not exist in the past has firmly taken root in the gold market. The world's biggest players, the central banks, continue to want more gold. As long as these big players support the bottom of gold prices, analysts are recently suggesting that the bottom may not be far off.

Second, when will the bottom of gold prices arrive? When is the rebound point? Even if central banks have quietly increased their gold purchases again, they cannot withstand the fierce selling spree by individuals and institutions. Ultimately, private demand must return. If you watch this number, you can confirm whether gold prices have hit bottom. What is this number?

One more thing. Where did the money that flowed out of gold and Bitcoin go? Many of you have probably already guessed. There is evidence everywhere that the money leaving gold has flocked to the frenzy surrounding the three major memory chip makers—Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron—the AI investment fever, and the IPO of SpaceX, the ultimate growth expectation stock. If so, what signal can we use to confirm that this money is abandoning its love for AI and returning to gold? Which two countries hold the key to the direction of gold prices in the second half of the year?

The decisive curve that will signal when gold prices hit bottom. The macroeconomic subtext we need to read in the commodities market, including gold, in the second half of the year. Reporter Kwon Ae-ri breaks it down clearly in Smart Economy.

1. Where did the money made from gold go?
2. Gold prices, in free fall? The super big players quietly building a bottom
3. So when will gold prices rise? This will signal the rebound point
4. "We don't believe the threats of interest rate hikes"—Is the gold price bottom near?

Reported by Kwon Ae-ri | Filmed by Park Woo-jin and Hwang Se-hoe | Produced by Jung Seo-woo | Edited by Chae Ji-won | Designed by Chae Ji-woo | Produced by SBS Knowledge Contents IP Team