The mathematical possibility of South Korea advancing to the Round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams, which once stood at 87%, has ultimately ended in confirmed elimination.

The national football team, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, was officially eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America today (June 28).

South Korea finished its Group A matches on June 25 with a record of 1 win and 2 losses, earning 3 points with a goal difference of -1 to place third in the group. The team then returned to its base camp to train while waiting to see if they would qualify for the Round of 32 based on the results of other groups.

For this tournament, which expanded from 32 to 48 participating nations, a spot in the Round of 32 was available not only to the top two teams in each group but also to the eight best third-placed teams out of the 12 groups.

After defeating the Czech Republic in the first group match, South Korea’s probability of advancing soared to 94%. Even after finishing third in the group, the team was still widely expected to advance, with an 87% probability.

At the time when Group A had completed its matches and the first day of the third round for Groups B and C had concluded, South Korea had already surpassed Scotland, the third-placed team in Group C, meaning they only needed three more teams to finish with worse records to qualify.

With nine groups of matches remaining, South Korea needed only three specific scenarios to unfold to reach the Round of 32.

However, the day after South Korea’s final match, Ecuador pulled off a major upset by defeating Germany in Group E, securing their spot in the Round of 32 as a third-placed team, causing one of the necessary scenarios to vanish.

In Group F, Sweden needed to lose to Japan by a margin of two goals to fall behind South Korea in the rankings, but the match ended in a 1-1 draw after a close contest.

In the Group D match between Australia and Paraguay, the two teams drew, leaving third-placed Paraguay ahead of South Korea.

At this point, South Korea’s probability of reaching the Round of 32 still stood at 54%.

However, as matches in other groups continued, the probability dropped further to 31%.

Today, the final day of the group stage, two out of three specific match results needed to go in South Korea’s favor. However, after Ghana lost to Croatia in the first match of Group L, the situation became desperate, requiring the remaining two results to go exactly as needed.

At that moment, the probability of advancing was 17%, but the results from the matches involving Uzbekistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo ultimately turned against the Hong Myung-bo squad.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo finished third in their group with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, moving ahead of South Korea.

After a lackluster performance in the tournament, the South Korean national team failed to receive the help they needed from other match results and is now left to pack their bags in disappointment.