US, Iran Pivot Sharply Toward Deal Amid Crisis: Can They Overcome the 'Devil in the Details'?

After trading attacks and counterattacks for two consecutive days, the United States and Iran appeared to pivot sharply toward a peace agreement on June 11 (local time).

This came as President Donald Trump abruptly announced the cancellation of airstrikes on social media on the third day of U.S. attacks against Iran, which had resumed on June 9 following the downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter.

Trump said he canceled the third wave of airstrikes, which had been scheduled for that night, "based on the fact that discussions between (the U.S.) and the Islamic Republic of Iran were conveyed to and approved by Iran's supreme leadership."

He added that all key Middle Eastern nations—including the warring parties of the U.S. and Israel, the mediator Pakistan, as well as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Türkiye, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt—had approved the contents of the discussions.

He then announced that "the time and place of the signing ceremony will be announced shortly." Later, during a proclamation signing ceremony in the Oval Office, he told reporters that a signing ceremony could "probably" be held in Europe this weekend, and that Vice President JD Vance would attend if it takes place.

On the Iranian side, responses suggested that while Trump might be getting slightly ahead of himself, there is a positive atmosphere building toward a deal.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that nothing has been finalized regarding the signing of the agreement, and that reports about the time and place of the signing are purely "speculative," Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported.

However, Baghaei acknowledged that a large part of the agreement has been finalized.

Although he pointed out that the U.S. had repeatedly changed its stance during negotiations, his remarks could be interpreted as maintaining a "cautious approach" based on experience rather than outright "denying" the U.S. message.

Additionally, Iran's Fars News Agency quoted an informed source as saying, "No text has been approved regarding the initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the United States."

However, the source added, "As the United States eventually accepted the original draft (MOU) proposed by Iran, it is observed that Iran's supreme leadership is highly likely to give final approval to the text."

Judging by Trump's announcement and Iran's response, the Middle East war—which began on February 28 and has lasted for over 100 days—is believed to have averted a catastrophic crisis and is now on the verge of a negotiated settlement.

The previous day, Trump said that "the negotiation is completely finished, but they are dragging their feet," adding, "all they have to do is sign (the document)." This suggested that, separate from the airstrikes, the agreement itself was nearly complete.

Putting together the statements made so far, it appears that with only the final signatures remaining, the U.S. used airstrikes to pressure Iran as it delayed. Once approval from Iran's supreme leadership was finally secured, the U.S. canceled the scheduled airstrikes and began preparing for the signing ceremony.

Indeed, the U.S. explained that exchanging views took time because Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public and communicates only through couriers, coupled with severe divisions within the leadership.

Ultimately, analysts suggest that Trump's pressure tactics—hinting at the potential seizure of Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export terminal, while launching limited airstrikes on military facilities rather than civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges—proved effective.

Trump may have also felt pressured by the continuation of hostilities during the North American World Cup (co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico), which kicked off that day.

Speculation had been rising within the U.S. administration that it would push to finalize the deal before the World Cup began.

Since the ceasefire in early April, negotiations had dragged on without a breakthrough, heightening fatigue. Trump was also facing mounting economic and political pressure due to rising international oil prices and domestic gasoline prices.

With the ball back in Iran's court, the key questions are whether Iran will proceed with signing the agreement as Trump announced, and what the final peace MOU will entail if a deal is reached.

Regarding the highly anticipated details of the peace MOU, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that Trump withdrew his additional demands and returned to the draft MOU that was nearing completion two weeks ago.

The previously known draft MOU involved extending the ceasefire for 60 days and negotiating Iran's nuclear issue during that period. However, Trump had refused to accept this, arguing it was insufficient, and pushed for renegotiation. Iran now claims that Trump has ultimately abandoned his attempt to alter the agreement.

Nevertheless, the consensus is that if Trump makes significant concessions to Iran on core issues—such as the level of the denuclearization agreement, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of transit fees, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets—he will face substantial political risks ahead of the midterm elections in November.

Therefore, attention is focused on how the suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program and the disposal of its existing highly enriched uranium are reflected in the agreement, in line with Trump's self-declared "red line" and his repeated assertions that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons."

During the proclamation signing ceremony, Trump said, "Most importantly, we have an agreement that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons," adding that the Strait of Hormuz would open and the U.S. naval blockade of Iran would be lifted immediately upon signing.

Ultimately, the situation is expected to remain fluid until both sides put their final signatures on the agreement.

Even if both sides have agreed on the framework of the deal, the "devil in the details" could still linger.

If the fine-tuning of the final text does not go smoothly, the possibility of the Middle East situation deteriorating once again cannot be ruled out.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.