SBS NEWS

News > World

How Are Polls Shaping Up in 7 U.S. Senate Battlegrounds? Democrats Ahead in 6, Tied in 1

Kim Minpyo

Published : Nov 2, 2026 3:45 PM


▲ President Donald Trump campaigns in Kansas

Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates have been shown leading Republican candidates in most battleground regions that will determine the Senate majority.

According to final polls released on November 1 by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, Democrats held the advantage in six out of the seven battleground states.

Notably, in the Senate race in Texas, a Republican stronghold, Democratic candidate James Talarico led Republican candidate Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, a 7-percentage-point margin.

Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

In Kansas as well, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton led incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.

The last time a Democratic senator was elected in Kansas was in 1932.

In Maine, Democratic candidate Troy Jackson led Republican Senator Susan Collins 51% to 45%, and in Ohio, the Democratic candidate led the Republican candidate 49% to 44%.

In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola narrowly led Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%.

In Michigan, the only region among the seven battlegrounds currently held by Democrats, the Democratic candidate led by an 11-percentage-point margin.

In Iowa, candidates from both parties were essentially tied.

The NYT analyzed that this trend is driven by voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the economic situation.

In the seven surveyed states, President Trump's job approval rating stood at just 38%.

Regarding which party would better handle cost-of-living issues, Democrats also led by an average of 9 percentage points across all seven battleground states.

While Democrats have recovered support among young and Latino voters, Republicans showed relative weakness compared to the past among non-college-educated white voters, their core base.

However, it remains uncertain whether this polling trend will translate directly into election results, analysts pointed out.

This is due to undecided voters who have not yet finalized their candidate choice.

In particular, voters who decided on their candidate within the past month were found to have chosen Republicans over Democrats by 9 percentage points more.

Additionally, past polls have sometimes failed to accurately reflect the voting tendencies of white working-class voters with strong Republican leanings.

For Democrats to win the Senate majority, they must defend all of their current seats while securing at least four additional seats currently held by Republicans.

The survey was conducted from October 23 to November 1 among voters in seven states, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)