As vote counting for Israel's general election concludes and the distribution of seats among political parties in the incoming Knesset takes shape, coalition-building negotiations are expected to kick into high gear.

According to the final election results released by Israel's Central Election Committee on October 30, the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secured 53 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc, which had been projected to lead in exit polls, secured 48 seats, while Arab parties—benefiting from their highest voter turnout in nearly 30 years—secured 19 seats, more than expected.

With neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc managing to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats or more, the direction of the next prime minister remains uncertain.

Coalition negotiations are expected to be a bumpy road for both incumbent Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is eyeing a return to power, and his formidable rival Gadi Eisenkot, former Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces.

This is because neither side secured an outright majority on their own, leaving Arab parties—which swept a historic 19 seats—holding the decisive casting vote that will shape the country's political trajectory.

Forming a coalition will inevitably require painful compromises with Arab parties, even at the risk of facing backlash from core supporters.

◇ Eisenkot-Arab Parties Alliance: "The Simplest Yet Most Dangerous Choice"

Arithmetically, the clearest breakthrough would be for the Eisenkot camp to join hands with Arab parties to form a formidable 67-seat "anti-Netanyahu" coalition.

Another possibility is a setup where Arab parties do not directly participate in the coalition but instead provide outside support to a minority government.

Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats participating in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, urged solidarity with Arab parties starting from the day the election results were announced.

In a column published in the daily Haaretz on the same day, he emphasized, "There are no conditional citizens in the democratic state of Israel," adding, "A vote cast by an Arab citizen carries the exact same value as a vote cast by a Jewish citizen."

He went on to stress, "Any member of parliament elected through a legitimate and democratic election is a rightful member of our political system," and asserted, "Those who believe in democracy cannot silence the voices of hundreds of thousands of citizens simply based on their background or name."

Yair Lapid, former prime minister and the number two figure in the centrist party Yachad (Together), drew a line by saying, "We won, but it was a decision win, not a knockout." He added, "The opposition bloc will mobilize all its capabilities to form a coalition, but the process will be difficult and success is not guaranteed."

He requested, "Therefore, we must ask the Israeli public for one thing that is difficult to ask for: patience."

The problem is the political risk.

Arab citizens, who account for 20 percent of Israel's population, are Palestinians who remained in Israel during the 1948 war of independence.

Because they share deep ties with Palestinian militant factions and residents, a significant number of Jewish Israelis hold extreme suspicion toward them.

In fact, Arab parties previously joined the "Rainbow Coalition"—formed in 2021 when left-wing, right-wing, and centrist parties united under an anti-Netanyahu banner.

However, that coalition collapsed within a year.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has already launched fierce attacks on the possibility of such an alliance, calling it "a betrayal of the Jewish state's identity and a security threat."

◇ Netanyahu-Eisenkot "Grand Coalition": "Will They Overcome the Burden of Broken Promises?"

Another scenario being discussed is Prime Minister Netanyahu persuading Eisenkot and his right-wing allies to form a "unity government."

In this case, the Netanyahu camp would secure a stable majority of 67 seats, while Arab parties, as well as ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions, would all be pushed into the opposition.

This would grant them the momentum to push forward at full speed with pressing issues such as the ultra-Orthodox military exemption controversy and economic recovery.

However, doing so would require bearing immense political fallout.

The Eisenkot camp has vowed that absolute compromise with Prime Minister Netanyahu is out of the question, citing responsibility for the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, Hamas surprise attack and attempts to neutralize the judiciary.

Prime Minister Netanyahu also faces a fatal dilemma: he would have to cut loose the far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies who stood by him and supported him until the end amid various crises, including the war with Hamas.

◇ Netanyahu Targets Weak Links in the Opposition... All-Out Battle to Secure Defectors

The possibility remains open for Prime Minister Netanyahu to pierce through vulnerabilities within the opposition bloc and rally defectors.

Local media reported that immediately after the announcement of election results, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who leads the far-right and devout Religious Zionist Party, to initiate countermeasures.

Key targets for the pro-Netanyahu bloc include former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, leaders of right-wing parties within the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

These figures share a common trait of being extremely reluctant to form an alliance with Arab parties.

However, deep emotional rifts have formed between them and Prime Minister Netanyahu over the years, and they strongly oppose the military service exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox, who form Netanyahu's core support base, making the arithmetic complicated.

In contrast, prevailing analysis suggests that the probability of defections from Netanyahu's solid support base in the Likud Party or the far-right camp toward the Eisenkot side is extremely low.

◇ Worst-Case Scenario: "Re-election"… The Outcome Netanyahu Desires

If both camps fail to form a coalition, Israel will have to face the judgment of voters once again early next year.

This could deal a fatal blow to the opposition camp, which had stirred momentum under the anti-Netanyahu banner.

While they reaped major benefits from the large-scale return voting of overseas constituents in this general election, it is difficult to guarantee their re-participation in the event of a re-election.

Conversely, for Prime Minister Netanyahu, it could serve as a golden opportunity to buy time and rally his support base.

There is also a possibility that the sentiment of minor right-wing parties—whose votes were wasted due to failing to enter parliament—will flow toward major far-right parties, solidifying the Prime Minister's standing.

Israel fell into a similar political deadlock back in 2019, experiencing the turmoil of holding general elections five times over three and a half years.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)