The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 25th (local time) that as tensions between the United States and Iran escalate recently, the risk of both countries returning to an all-out war is growing.

The NYT diagnosed that ahead of the US midterm elections and the Israeli general election, both sides have entered a new phase where tensions and risks are escalating as they seek pretexts for military action.

Recently, concerns have been raised within the administration of US President Donald Trump that Iran has entered an "advanced" stage of planning attacks against US officials.

Conversely, the atmosphere in Iran is one of conviction that the US and Israel are attempting to launch new attacks to subdue the country.

The fact that President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are each facing elections with their political fates on the line is acting as a complex calculation.

The NYT analyzed that even if Prime Minister Netanyahu loses the election, he could carry out a final strike that his successor might hesitate to make, and President Trump may also seek to demonstrate that his authority as commander-in-chief remains intact.

It further pointed out that, much like the Cuban Missile Crisis or the decision to invade Iraq in the past, partial or flawed intelligence, or misunderstandings of an adversary's motives, can lead to catastrophic consequences.

Amid mounting fear and alert status, movements that could lead to actual armed conflict are also emerging.

Citing high-ranking US officials, the NYT reported that President Trump appears to be leaning toward another airstrike targeting inside Iran during private settings.

An official familiar with the matter stated that the US Central Command has drawn up an expanded list of bombing targets, including essential economic facilities such as Iran's energy infrastructure.

Iran has also recently warned, stating that there are "no red lines" and that submarine communication cables passing through the Gulf could become targets if US attacks resume.

Questions are also being raised about the Trump administration's method of disclosing related intelligence.

On the 23rd, US media outlets reported that the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) informed key figures of the Trump administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that "intelligence has been obtained indicating that Iran has significantly intensified its efforts to target US personnel."

It was reported that the intelligence had been shared only with a small number of high-ranking officials prior to its public disclosure.

The NYT reported that even some officials questioned why sensitive classified information was made public when the Trump administration is in a situation where it is difficult to publicly present evidence of specific attack plans.

It also pointed out that rather than reducing risk, suddenly releasing a sensitive classified memo after months of no relevant briefings has instead heightened the danger.

Iranian threats directed at President Trump and his aides also created an atmosphere of intense fear during the 2024 presidential election period.

In July of that year, the FBI arrested a Pakistani national assassin hired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and counter-snipers were deployed to presidential campaign rally sites.

The NYT explained that these threats are intertwined with the desire for retaliation that Iran has harbored since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's elite Quds Force, carried out under President Trump's directive in January 2020.