US experts have forecasted that the possibility of US President Donald Trump meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his upcoming trip to Asia for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit next month is slim.

Speaking on a podcast hosted by Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), on October 22 (local time), Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the US think tank Stimson Center, said, "The likelihood of a North Korea-US summit coming together anytime soon is pretty small," adding that it is well below 50%.

Town explained, "The question is not whether North Korea will come to the negotiating table, but whether the United States is willing to take steps" such as easing hostile policies toward North Korea and excluding denuclearization discussions, "and it doesn't look very likely that the US will go that far in the near future."

She further noted that because North Korea is demanding outcomes typically secured through the negotiation process as preconditions for talks, Pyongyang will not feel a sense of urgency to meet with the US if it cannot achieve those demands immediately.

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also stated, "Given that it's late October, the possibility of [a summit] happening on the occasion of APEC is probably less than 10%," predicting that President Trump's attention would be diverted to other areas following the midterm elections early next month.

Panda suggested that North Korea would want something demonstrating a shift in US policy toward the North, proposing that President Trump send a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un through his State of the Union address early next year.

He implied that if the US officially delivers a more prepared message rather than simply responding to questions from reporters, North Korea would show greater interest.

Panda projected that if a summit does take place, potential locations could include the Joint Security Area at Panmunjom, the runway at Pyongyang's airport, or Beijing, China.

Panda analyzed that while North Korea is staging various armed demonstrations, it is avoiding nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches that could back President Trump into a corner.

He added that if President Trump appears unfazed despite North Korea's continued missile launches, Pyongyang might consider talks with the US more seriously, noting that North Korea is also currently testing the United States.

In a recent report, Cha analyzed that during the first 21 months of the second Trump administration, North Korea has launched missiles 34 times, which is double the 17 times during the same period in the first Trump administration.

During the four years of the first Trump administration, North Korea's total number of missile launches was 37.

(Photo: Capture from CSIS website, Yonhap News)