Middle Eastern crude oil exports have reportedly surpassed levels seen before the war involving Iran.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 20th, citing data from shipping analytics firm Kpler, that crude oil shipments from the Middle East exceeded an average of 24 million barrels per day for the week leading up to the 18th.

This is higher than the pre-war volume of 23.3 million barrels per day.

The total export volume for Middle Eastern countries combines shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have significantly increased the volume bypassed around the Strait of Hormuz by utilizing pipelines.

Kpler estimated that last month, about 40% of Gulf crude oil exports, excluding Iran, bypassed the Strait of Hormuz.

A "shuttle shipping" method has also spread, in which crude oil is loaded inside the Persian Gulf, transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and transferred to other vessels near Oman.

This method involves oil tankers turning off their location tracking signals while passing through hazardous zones, transferring the crude to long-haul transport vessels near Oman, and then returning to the Persian Gulf.

The expansion of shuttle shipping is driven by high profitability.

According to Kpler, Iraqi crude can be resold at 20 dollars per barrel higher than before the war, generating about 40 million dollars (approx. 53 billion won) in additional revenue per very large crude carrier (VLCC).

Calculations show that just three shuttle voyages can recover 100 million dollars, the price of a second-hand oil tanker.

Hazard pay is also being paid to crew members.

A Chinese crew dispatch agency has offered up to 25,000 dollars (approx. 33 million won) for a single round-trip voyage lasting one to two weeks.

The U.S. military is providing air cover along established shipping lanes off the coast of Oman.

As this transport system has taken root, crude oil volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to an average of about 14 million barrels per day, reaching 82% of pre-war levels.

While Iranian attacks on vessels continue in the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of crude oil is being maintained as a new transport system combining U.S. air cover, rerouting, and offshore transshipment establishes itself.

Hamad Hussain, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, said, "The crude oil transport system passing through the hazardous Strait of Hormuz has become quite established, and export stakeholders' willingness to take risks has also increased."

The analysis suggests that as Iran's ability to deter passage through the Strait of Hormuz weakens, its leverage in negotiations against the United States is also diminishing.

Hussain stated, "For Iran to control the flow of crude oil in the region to the same extent as in the past, it would have to act much more aggressively than it is now."
 
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)