As the Kospi plunged more than 7% during trading and even broke through the 6,000 mark, a brokerage firm has released a forecast suggesting the Kospi could rise up to 10,000 points next year.

Projections were also presented that it could climb up to 12,000 points if market conditions flow optimistically.

In its "2027 Stock Market Outlook and Strategy" report released today (13th), Yuanta Securities projected the expected trading range for the Kospi next year to be between 6,000 and 10,000 points.

It predicted that the index would move between 6,000 and 7,500 points from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, with the upper and lower bounds of the index gradually rising over time.

The expected range is 6,500 to 8,000 points for the second quarter of next year, 7,500 to 9,000 points for the third quarter, and 8,500 to 10,000 points for the fourth quarter.

This anticipates a so-called "low-first, high-later" trend, where the upward momentum is stronger in the second half of the year than in the first.

In particular, it analyzed that under an optimistic scenario, the Kospi has room to climb up to 12,000 points.

Conversely, it viewed that the 6,000 level would maintain support even in a pessimistic situation.

The core rationale behind the high index forecast is the earnings of semiconductor companies.

Yuanta Securities projected that the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and the earnings growth trend of semiconductor companies will continue into next year.

In particular, it noted that the proportion of long-term supply contracts among domestic semiconductor companies reaches the 80% range.

Based on this, it presented a scenario raising next year's earnings projections for AI and semiconductor companies by 10% above market expectations, while lowering those for other sectors by 10%.

Under this scenario, the operating profit of Kospi-listed companies next year is estimated to reach a whopping 1,410 trillion won, with net income attributable to controlling shareholders hitting 1,160 trillion won.

The expectation that the burden of U.S. interest rate hikes will gradually ease was also presented as a rationale for the stock market's rise.

However, for the Kospi to actually reach the 10,000 mark, the return of foreign investors is critical.

Yuanta Securities analyzed that foreigners have not yet sent sufficient confidence in the earnings growth of domestic semiconductor companies.

It also mentioned the possibility that global investors may be favoring Taiwan over South Korea as an AI-related investment destination.

Therefore, it projected that the Kospi's upside potential would be limited to around the 8,000 mark until the first half of next year.

Reported by Kim Minjeong | Video by Jang Yu-jin | Design by Lee Jung-ju | Produced by SBS Digital News