As Iran's capability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz weakens, Middle East crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes has recovered to nearly 80 percent of pre-war levels as of last week, the U.S. daily The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 28th (local time).

The WSJ reported this, citing vessel tracking data from shipping data firm Kpler.

The WSJ also cited vessel tracking data from Huax, reporting that crude oil exports from major Middle East producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) rebounded to nearly 13 million barrels per day in September.

This is the highest level since February, when the region exported nearly 19 million barrels per day.

As the U.S. Navy and producers in the Persian Gulf region have become more adept at defending against or evading Iranian attacks, more tankers have been able to pass through the strait.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia has resumed transporting crude oil through its damaged East-West pipeline to load onto tankers in the Red Sea.

However, according to officials, transport volumes remain reduced, and a portion of current production is slated to go to domestic refineries in Saudi Arabia.

In contrast, Iran has been unable to transport crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. resumed its maritime blockade in July.

Kpler projected that Iranian crude oil loaded on tankers operating outside the blockade line decreased from 29 million barrels in early September to 15 million barrels as of late September, and will be depleted by early or mid-October.

The destination for most of this Iranian crude oil is China.

Analysts estimate that the volume of Iranian crude oil that can be transported by truck will amount to no more than 40,000 barrels per day.

Iran's pre-war crude oil exports were about 2 million barrels per day.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News on the 27th, "They will probably make their final oil delivery to China in the next two weeks, and there will be nothing left after that."

If these projections hold, Iran, whose economy is already shaken by sanction pressures and the burdens of war, will find its core source of revenue cut off.

Because of this, some point out that Iran may conclude that resuming attacks is its best course of action, even at the risk of U.S. retaliation.

Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, analyzed, "This shows that Iran's Hormuz strategy is becoming increasingly ineffective," adding, "To get out of this predicament, Iran may have to provoke or trigger a larger conflict, which could lead to a more explosive phase."

Gulf producers are concerned about the possibility that Iran and allied forces, such as Yemen's Houthi rebels, might resume attacks on energy infrastructure or alternative routes to escalate tensions.

However, for now, Iranian vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have maintained a lull for several days following September 23.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)