An analysis has emerged suggesting that the reason oil prices are not surging sharply, despite Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is the increase in the number of oil tankers secretly passing through the strait.

On September 28, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) reported that the speculation is spreading that crude oil supply has recovered to 60% of the level before the military conflict between the US and Iran, and that oil prices are showing relatively stable trends, because a growing number of oil tankers are passing through the Strait of Hormuz with their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) turned off.

According to data from European research firm Kpler, the volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz this month averaged 9.36 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.56 million barrels from August.

This is the highest level since the military conflict between the US and Iran began in late February, recovering to 60% of the 15 million barrels of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict.

It is estimated that this figure also includes the crude oil loaded on tankers with their AIS turned off.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandates that oil tankers passing through international routes keep their AIS turned on and transmit location signals.

However, in situations where safety is threatened, the AIS can be turned off as an emergency measure.

Turning off the AIS makes it difficult for Iran to track location information, thereby reducing the risk of drone attacks or capture.

Crude oil prices are also evaluated as being relatively stable.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures traded at the level of 91 to 95 dollars per barrel on September 25, which is about 20% lower than the peak of the 119 dollar range seen after the military conflict between the US and Iran.

The two countries seen as increasing crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz are Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

It is estimated that Saudi Arabia increased detour exports via the Red Sea immediately after the US-Iran conflict, but has focused again on exports through the Strait of Hormuz after its pipelines were targeted by drone attacks.

According to the British research firm Argus Media, Saudi Arabia's state-owned enterprise Aramco has initiated spot tenders for crude oil to be delivered by transshipping crude oil off the coast of Oman for September to November delivery.

This is considered a very unusual transaction for Saudi Arabia, which has traditionally sold crude oil only through long-term contracts and monthly official pricing.

Nikkei reported that Iraq, which relied on the Strait of Hormuz for more than 90% of its crude oil exports before the US-Iran military conflict, also appears to have no choice but to stake its life on sending out tankers through the strait.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)