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ECB Chief Economist: Second Energy Price Wave Means Inflation Will Not Stabilize Until Next Year

Park Jaehyeon

Published : Sep 22, 2026 11:19 PM


▲ A gas station near the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany

Philip Lane, chief economist at the European Central Bank (ECB), projected on the 22nd (local time) that inflation in Europe will not stabilize until the middle of next year due to a resurgence in energy prices.

Bloomberg reported that Lane said in an interview with the Swiss daily Le Temps that "we see the second wave of energy price increases keeping inflation higher for longer."

He stated that the second wave of energy prices will exert upward pressure on prices across groceries, broad energy such as electricity, and general goods, adding that "if a stronger and more persistent shock occurs this fall, it will weigh on the economy."

He also projected that the eurozone's inflation rate would fall to the 2 percent target around the middle of next year, adding, "Our baseline scenario is that the economy will continue to grow at a steady, moderate pace, provided the energy shock does not become severe."

Driven by the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices, the eurozone's consumer price inflation jumped to 3.2 percent last month.

This is the highest level in about three years, since it reached 4.3 percent in September 2023.

On the 10th, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key policy rates by 0.25 percentage points each, presenting eurozone consumer price inflation forecasts of 3.0 percent for this year and 2.5 percent for next year.

As international oil prices rebound due to armed conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels, several European countries are reviving energy price stabilization measures.

The German government decided to cut fuel taxes on gasoline and diesel by 14 cents (approx. 218 won) per liter from October 1 to December 1.

Including the value-added tax, this has the effect of lowering gas station fuel prices by about 17 cents (approx. 264 won) per liter.

Following neighboring countries like Belgium and Luxembourg, Germany is also reviewing the introduction of a gas station fuel price cap starting next January.

Germany temporarily lowered fuel taxes last May and June.

The Czech Republic has also decided to re-implement fuel margin limits and price caps for the month of October, which were introduced immediately after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and suspended last July.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)