Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has shut down a core crude pipeline and escalated clashes with Yemen's Houthi rebels, raising the risk of a catastrophic loss of oil supply in global markets, The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 16th (local time).

According to an analysis by maritime intelligence firm Kpler cited by the NYT, if the Saudi East-West Pipeline, which recently halted operations due to a strike, remains shut for a month, the supply shortfall the global oil market would have to endure is projected to reach approximately 120 million barrels.

This accounts for about 4% of monthly global crude oil supply.

The NYT diagnosed that if the pipeline transport network of Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, faces prolonged disruptions, shockwaves will ripple across the entire global energy market.

The Saudi East-West Pipeline was temporarily halted after being struck on the 10th by a drone believed to have been launched from a pro-Iranian stronghold in southern Iraq.

While the identity of the attacker has not been officially confirmed, the Saudi government has stated that the drone that struck the pipeline was launched from Iraqi territory.

The pipeline, spanning about 1,200 kilometers, runs from Saudi Arabia's eastern oilfields across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Crude oil leaving the Port of Yanbu can be exported to Asia and other regions via the Suez Canal at the northern end of the Red Sea or pipelines within Egypt.

As a result, the Saudi East-West Pipeline has served as a key bypass route since Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, playing a decisive role in mitigating the impact of prolonged blockades in the strait.

The escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels, an ally of Iran, is heightening concerns over oil supply disruptions.

Amid the pipeline shutdown, the Houthi rebels seized a strategic location near the Bab al-Mandab Strait last week and have been stepping up pressure on Saudi oil exports by striking key Saudi energy infrastructure.

In response, Saudi Arabia has also launched missile strikes against the Houthis, creating an atmosphere of intensifying military conflict between the two sides.

Experts warn that under these circumstances, the global economy is facing an unprecedented energy crisis, according to the NYT.

Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East and OPEC Analysis at Kpler, said, "With two critical maritime chokepoints blocked, Iran intensifying its attacks, its proxies acting actively, and no signs of diplomatic negotiations, from an energy security standpoint, this is a catastrophic situation."

Goldman Sachs also warned in a recent report that international oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel if military strikes in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea persist.

The future trajectory of international oil prices is expected to depend heavily on when the Saudi pipeline is restarted.

However, predictions regarding how long the restoration will take vary widely among forecasting entities.

The Saudi government and state-run oil company Aramco have not released official positions on the specific extent of the pipeline damage or the recovery timeline.

Kpler's Bakr told the NYT that repairs could take 5 to 6 weeks, though partial restoration could be completed sooner.

Reuters reported, citing three sources in the oil and security sectors, that two pump stations connecting the pipeline were damaged, and the repair schedule remains unclear at this time.

In contrast, the U.S. government expressed optimism that pipeline repair work would proceed quickly.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a CNBC interview on the 15th that "this event will be a short, temporary disruption" and expressed that crude transport through the pipeline would resume soon.

Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the U.S. think tank Brookings Institution, also said, "Judging by past precedents, facilities like this have been repaired within weeks," adding, "Satellite imagery already shows signs that repair work is underway."

News that Saudi Arabia is seeking new temporary export bypass routes, such as maritime crude loading, is also acting as a factor easing some anxiety over prolonged supply disruptions.

Earlier, Reuters reported, citing sources, that Aramco has additionally proposed ship-to-ship crude oil transfers near the Port of Sohar in Oman to long-term Asian contract buyers.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)