On July 23, citizens carried umbrellas after forecasts predicted rain in Seoul, but the timing of the precipitation missed the mark.

[Roh Ji-soo (July 23): "Because the forecasts keep changing every hour, I don't really trust tomorrow's forecast anymore and just look up the immediate weather instead."]

The following day on the 24th, rain was continuously forecast from dawn until 5:00 PM, yet not a single drop fell across all of Seoul.

According to internal data obtained by SBS, the Korea Meteorological Administration's overall forecast accuracy for this past summer from June to August stood at 84%.

This 84% figure is calculated in the following manner.

It accounts for instances where it was forecast to be clear and was actually clear, as well as when it was forecast to be clear but it rained, when rain was forecast and it actually rained, and when rain was forecast but it remained clear.

The forecast accuracy reflecting the outcomes of all four of these scenarios is 84%.

However, the reality experienced by citizens feels somewhat different.

If we exclude days forecast to be clear—since people pay less attention to the weather when it is clear—and calculate the "precipitation hit rate" focusing only on days when rain was forecast or when rain actually fell without a prior forecast, this figure came out to 0.32 for this summer.

This means the forecasts were correct only about 3 out of 10 times.

While a precipitation hit rate of around 0.5 to 0.6 is considered the limit of modern science, this summer's hit rate was exceptionally low, ranking at the very bottom among summers over the past decade.

[Rep. Kim Wi-sang / People Power Party (National Assembly Environment and Labor Committee): "Although the Korean numerical prediction model has been improved six times, the latest version currently in operation has scored lower than the initial version from 6 years ago. There seem to be quite a few aspects that cannot be sufficiently explained simply by saying prediction has become difficult."]

The Meteorological Administration explained that for the month of July, the forecast accuracy calculated solely for days when rain actually fell ranked second highest among the past 10 years.

It also stated that in order to do its utmost in disaster prevention, it will expand observation networks such as subsequent meteorological satellites and introduce new prediction models to raise forecast accuracy.

[Exclusive] KMA's Summer Precipitation Hit Rate Ranks Dead Last in Past 10 Years (September 11, 2026, 8 News)

(Reported by Jung Gu-hee | Written by Choi Yoon-seo | Camera by Shin Dong-hwan and Kim Se-kyung | Video Edited by Jung Yong-hwa | Designed by Hwang Se-yeon | Produced by SBS Digital News)