A U.S. expert on North Korea suggested that the possibility of a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is slim, and even if it takes place, the interests of South Korea and Japan will take a backseat.

Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation (Note: Mansfield Foundation) and a former CIA analyst, claimed during a seminar hosted by the Korea Economic Institute of America in Washington, D.C., on the 25th (local time) that "the possibility of a summit is slim to none. Even that slim possibility has left the table."

As for the reasons, Senior Fellow Klingner cited that "North Korea is receiving between $14 billion and $20 billion from Russia in the form of food, fuel, funds, and military technology. Trade with China has also recovered to pre-COVID levels, and it is earning $1 billion annually from cryptocurrency crimes," adding that "unlike a few years ago, it no longer needs the U.S. to lift sanctions."

However, he added that the possibility of a summit cannot be completely ruled out depending on "how low the U.S. sets its bar or how willing Trump is to offer concessions."

Senior Fellow Klingner noted that President Trump's recent scaling back of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" and the cancellation of the Marine Corps combined exercise "Ssangyong" were the first concessions, predicting that "we will continue to see exercises cancelled going forward."

He went on to say, "North Korea will view it this way: 'That's not enough, Donald. Keep raising the stakes and offer more and more concessions. Then we might consider meeting you.'"

Nevertheless, Senior Fellow Klingner observed that "Trump will want to meet with North Korea and won't care about what the interests of Japan or South Korea are."

In this regard, he pointed out that while "North Korea is the biggest threat to the three countries" of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, "the biggest challenge is actually the United States (President)." He criticized, "We have seen tariff extortion by 'Donald Corleone' (comparing President Trump to a mafia godfather), threats to withdraw troops, and insulting language."

Experts attending the seminar generally agreed that trilateral relations among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan have weakened overall compared to 2023 when the Camp David Joint Statement was issued, and that President Trump's return to power is at the center of that change.

Cho Eun-ah, an assistant professor at William & Mary, pointed out that "his attitude of obsessing over coercive leverage and relative gains against allies has been tremendously detrimental to the trust that forms the foundation of the alliance."

Ayumi Teraoka, an assistant professor at Brandeis University, also diagnosed that "the volatility and uncertainty of the U.S. are truly bringing difficulties to these two allies."

Senior Fellow Klingner stated, "An alliance is like a marriage. If you insult your spouse and threaten to punish them if they don't submit, the spouse and the allies remember that. Even if the situation improves, the memory remains," adding, "Both allies (South Korea and Japan) will feel like they are in some kind of abusive relationship."

Assuming that South Korea stands at a different angle from the U.S. and Japan regarding its stance on China, Assistant Professor Cho projected that if "relations among China, North Korea, and Russia develop into something resembling a more formal alliance, South Korea will be tied to a greater extent to the expanded goals of trilateral cooperation."

(Photo: Yonhap News)