Doubts are growing over the utility of U.S. military bases in the Middle East as vulnerabilities have been exposed through the conflict with Iran, the Financial Times (FT) reported on the 23rd local time.

These bases, mostly installed along the Persian Gulf, were geographically too close, falling within the range of Iranian short-range missiles and drones, and their flaws were starkly revealed in this war.

Iran struck surface-exposed facilities at U.S. military bases, including aircraft hangars, as well as logistics and radar infrastructure.

Consequently, the U.S. 5th Fleet has had to use Diego Garcia island as a temporary supply hub instead of its headquarters in Bahrain.

Nate Swanson, a former director for Iranian affairs at the U.S. National Security Council (NSC), argued, "There is little practical benefit in rebuilding parts of these sites," adding that the military "needs to move west" (away from Iran).

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a U.S. think tank, estimated in April of this year that the cost of repairing damage to 11 U.S. military bases dispersed across seven Middle Eastern countries would be about 5 billion dollars, or approximately 6.5 trillion won in Korean currency.

The FT pointed out, "The United States now faces a decision on whether to spend billions of dollars rebuilding these bases or to reassess its military posture in the Middle East for a new era."

The U.S. military formalized its presence in the Middle East after the 1990 Gulf War, subsequently enjoying access to bases in major Middle Eastern countries excluding Iran.

Iran launched airstrikes against neighboring Middle Eastern countries on the grounds that they provided their territory to these bases, which served as staging grounds for attacks against Iran.

In effect, the U.S. military presence, which was expected to guarantee security, became a pretext for Iranian attacks.

Hal Brands, a scholar at Johns Hopkins University, stated, "U.S. facilities in the Middle East, particularly large bases, are highly vulnerable," and predicted that "there will be a 'rebalancing' in the future where U.S. military deployments move away from the Persian Gulf."

This means that the proportion of U.S. bases within the range of Iran's short-range missiles and drones will decrease.

Even if the U.S. military relocates its bases outside the range of Iran's short-range strikes, the effectiveness remains uncertain.

The FT projected that "as an emboldened Iran believes it cannot avoid a long-term confrontation with the United States, it will adapt accordingly," noting that Iran is expected to invest more in medium-range strike capabilities targeting Jordan, Israel, and other nations.

Changes in the U.S. Department of Defense's force posture model are also a reason why the presence in the Middle East, which began as a "security-for-oil" exchange, is fading.

This is because, while redesigning combat methods for modern warfare, the Pentagon favors a more distributed deployment model that makes U.S. forces harder to target, rather than large, fixed hub-style bases.

Dana Stroul, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, pointed out, "We can do something much more agile and flexible," noting that "the exposed design of Gulf bases is a relic of the past unsuited for modern conflict."

The reduction of the Islamic State's (IS) influence, the stabilization of Syria, and other Middle Eastern dynamics are also backgrounds reducing the utility of a network of bases clustered with U.S. assets in the Gulf region.

However, the FT noted that the United States will face a dilemma over how to reduce its troop presence in the Gulf region without provoking Iran or unsettling Arab allies.

Brands, the Johns Hopkins University scholar, pointed out, "The impression that the U.S. is irresponsibly withdrawing must be dispelled."

The U.S. military presence in the Middle East originated from the "Carter Doctrine" announced by U.S. President Jimmy Carter in January 1980, shortly after the Iranian Islamic Revolution.

The Carter Doctrine dictates that the United States will not allow a hostile power—namely Iran—to control the Gulf region and will prevent it by force.

Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, explained, "The Carter Doctrine appears to have broken down," adding, "The Iranian Islamic Revolution forced the Carter Doctrine into existence, and the war with Iran has dismantled it."

President Carter's administration was shaken by the 1979 U.S. Embassy hostage crisis in Tehran, and President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he will not be remembered like President Carter.

However, it is ironic that, much like President Carter, strategic failures in Iran are cornering President Trump.

(Photo: U.S. Central Command X, Yonhap News)