▲ Iran-Oman New Hormuz Shipping Route Agreement
Arab mediators facilitating negotiations between the United States and Iran are concerned that even if a deal is reached, Iranian hard-liners may fail to abide by the agreement, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 6th (local time).
Citing mediators, the outlet reported that while the Iranian negotiating team accepted a proposal over the weekend to divide entry into the Strait of Hormuz near Iran and exit through Oman, negotiations have been complicated as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) demanded clearer regulations and benefits regarding Iran's role.
Mediators said that the Iranian negotiating team is being more candid about the limits of its capacity regarding the outcome of the talks, facing heavy pressure to immediately secure economic benefits through an agreement.
It was also reported that the Iranian negotiators told mediators that the Revolutionary Guard, having defended against U.S. attacks, has gained domestic support within Iran and could resume attacking ships if the terms of the agreement are not sufficiently favorable.
U.S. conservative media outlets are pointing to internal power struggles within Iran as the reason negotiations are failing to make progress.
Diplomat-led moderate negotiators are clashing with hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard, with the hard-liners holding the real power.
This latest report also conveyed a negative outlook that no matter what agreement Iranian diplomats reach with the U.S., the hard-line military will not be bound by it and will independently judge and act.
Pointing out that an agreement between the U.S. and Iran has failed to remain binding due to the adversarial dynamics between the moderates and hard-liners, the WSJ noted that this "casts a dark shadow over ongoing diplomatic efforts."
It further analyzed, "Iran is constantly walking a tightrope between retaliation for damages, deterring U.S. attacks, and the need to resolve economic hardship through negotiations," while adding, "It appears the hard-liners have taken the upper hand."
As evidence, it cited how shortly after the U.S. and Iran signed a pre-ceasefire memorandum of understanding in June, the Iranian military attacked a ship navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time, the Iranian military attacked the vessel on the grounds that it was not following the route designated by Iran.
Regardless of whether they are moderates or hard-liners, what Iran is currently focusing on is securing complete control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
In connection with this, the Associated Press reported on the 7th that U.S. President Donald Trump may have to do something uncharacteristic—namely, "compromise"—to reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Although the U.S. has launched countless airstrikes around the strait to force Iran to relinquish control, Iran still retains the capability to attack vessels passing through the area.
Eliot Cohen, who served as a counselor to the State Department in the George W. Bush administration, pointed out to the AP, "Trump divides the world into winners and losers, and this (compromise) would make him a loser," adding, "The image of a loser is something he can hardly endure."
Judging by President Trump's remarks, he still does not appear inclined to make concessions to Iran.
David Schenker of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said, "With intensifying economic pressure, President Trump could compromise on the strait issue," adding, "It seems he has revealed his true intentions regarding resolving the crisis."