The Iran war has returned to a ceasefire mode "once again." However, it remains uncertain whether this current stability will smoothly lead to a definitive end to the conflict. "This pattern has continued since February 28. When oil prices rise, they stop the attacks, and when oil prices fall, they resume airstrikes," diagnosed Professor Park Hyun-do of the Sogang University Euro-MENA Institute, who points out that an "oil shock" has already begun. While countries around the world have managed to suppress the shocks thus far, the war has become entrenched as a war of attrition, meaning that "100-dollar oil" might not be a temporary peak, but rather a new benchmark for oil prices. Even if the war ends right here, the real problems and aftershocks left behind by this conflict are only just beginning, according to Professor Park, one of South Korea's foremost Middle East experts.

More than 60 percent of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for South Korea, China, and Japan. If disruptions occur in this supply, it will shake not only Asia but also corners of the world that rely on South Korean refined petroleum. Even if the war ends immediately today and "100 dollars per barrel" does not become the new normal, it will likely be quite some time before oil prices return to pre-war levels. There is growing anxiety that crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will face unprecedented tolls, and insurance companies will introduce new premium rates for the "risk of passing through Hormuz," potentially establishing a "new normal at the high end" for fuel prices.

The "ceasefire MOU" signed by the United States and Iran in June is acting instead as a seed for new conflicts. Professor Park's analysis is that Iran views the MOU—which took a shape that essentially amounted to "America's declaration of surrender" (referencing John Mearsheimer)—as a "card for buying time by the U.S." The chasm of distrust is so deep that a swift end to the conflict is difficult to expect. "Article 5 of the MOU concerning control over the Strait of Hormuz is so ambiguous that it even made me think, 'There must be some kind of secret agreement...' (Professor Park)"

One thing is certain: both Iran and the United States have largely lost public support in the Middle East. Iran is highly likely to face even greater difficulties in its relations with neighboring countries following the war, and the U.S. is repeatedly finding itself in subtle tensions with long-standing Middle Eastern allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel. It has already lost the sentiment of the public in the Middle East. "Still, President Trump ultimately has no choice but to listen to 'these people.' Prime Minister Netanyahu is no different. Just look at the profiles of President Trump's deep-rooted, high-dollar donors."

Professor Park says 'this' is the decisive card that will bring about the end of the Iran war. In [Ttoksori Talk], we cleanly and clearly unpacked the Middle East situation, which only seems to tangle further from every direction, step by step with Professor Park Hyun-do.

1. Another Attack, Another TACO... Until When?
2. An 'Oil Shock' Has Already Begun
3. What Is the 'Biggest Conflict' in U.S.-Iran Negotiations?
4. What Will Be the Impact on the U.S. Midterm Elections?
5. "Trump Cannot Break Away from Jewish Influence"
6. "Middle Eastern 'Public Sentiment' Is Grim"

Reported by Kwon Aelee | Filming: Hwang Se-hoe, Kim Sang-yoon | Producer: Jung Seo-woo | Editing: Chae Ji-won | Design: Chae Ji-woo | Intern: Kim Hye-won | Produced by SBS Knowledge Contents IP Team