A recent study shows that achieving success in the highly competitive K-pop market is akin to passing through the eye of a needle.

Only about half of domestic idol groups manage to survive past three years, and just 1.6% achieve million-seller status, which is considered a major breakthrough.

Kim Jung-sub, a professor in the Department of Culture, Industry and Arts at Sungshin Women's University and president of the Global K-Culture Economic Forum, announced the findings on August 4 after conducting a comprehensive analysis of 1,182 idol groups that debuted over the past 30 years since H.O.T. in 1996, a milestone widely regarded as the beginning of the K-pop idol industry.

Professor Kim noted that this study is the first of its kind to meticulously examine 1,182 groups that debuted over the 30-year period from 1996 through the end of 2025, using statistical analysis, cohort analysis, and in-depth expert interviews. He emphasized that the research empirically identifies the internal competitive structure and hit-making mechanism of the K-pop idol industry, which has achieved global success.

The study revealed that an average of 39.4 idol groups debut in the K-pop market each year, consisting of an average of 19.8 boy bands and 19.6 girl groups.

However, the findings confirmed a structure characterized by high initial dropout rates, a concentration of winners, and high risk and competition.

According to Professor Kim, the average lifespan of an entire idol group is 4.12 years, which accounts for 58.9% of the standard 7-year exclusive contract period.

Furthermore, the survival rate at three years post-debut was found to be 55.03%, just over half.

Conversely, this means that about 45% of all groups drop out of the market.

Professor Kim diagnosed that due to a unique industry structure where market performance in the initial one to three years after debut determines whether agencies continue investments beyond the fourth year, a significant number of groups fail to complete their first exclusive contract period, ending their activities or effectively disbanding.

However, he analyzed that while the three-year survival rate of idol groups is higher than the 41.5% three-year survival rate of general small businesses founded after start-ups, it is lower than the 68.1% survival rate of government-supported start-ups over the same period. He added that while the idol industry is inherently high-risk, previous perceptions have often been excessively negative.

He also added that these findings indicate a need to objectively reevaluate investment risks to foster the development of the music industry.

The average lifespan of boy bands was 5.11 years, compared to 3.13 years for girl groups, showing that boy bands remain active an average of 1.98 years longer.

This is interpreted as stemming from differences in revenue models: unlike boy bands, which secure a loyal consumption structure centered on a female fandom, girl groups rely more heavily on public appeal and revenues driven by events and digital music streaming.

Among the idol groups that have debuted over the past 30 years, only 42 teams, or 3.55% of the total, recorded sales of more than 300,000 copies for a single album, a level of success that signifies breaking even.

Additionally, groups that sold 1 million copies of a single album, a symbol of a massive hit, numbered 19 teams, accounting for 1.61% of the total.

Furthermore, only 7 teams (0.59%) surpassed cumulative album sales of 10 million copies—BTS, SEVENTEEN, Stray Kids, EXO, TWICE, NCT, and TOMORROW X TOGETHER (TXT)—demonstrating successful establishment of a solid intellectual property (IP) brand by building a global fandom.

Professor Kim interpreted that BTS's success was not merely a one-off exception, but rather the formation of a post-BTS era that continues to produce successive, albeit small in number, globally popular groups.

To ensure the sustainable development of the K-pop industry, he proposed several policy tasks: introducing a long-term growth-oriented idol training system, establishing structures for retry after failure, providing shared infrastructure support for small and medium-sized agencies, curbing indiscriminate debuts by strengthening preliminary verification, and securing a balance between global expansion and domestic survival foundations.

Professor Kim emphasized that it is now time to prepare for the next 30 years of K-pop, and that capabilities must be concentrated on building a sustainable ecosystem with the goal of completely leaping forward into a mainstream global cultural industry beyond the single success model centered on BTS.

This research paper was published in the 20th volume, issue 4 of the Journal of the Korea Entertainment Industry Association released on July 30, under the title "Survival and Hit Structure of the K-Pop Idol Music Industry: A Comprehensive Analysis of 1,182 Groups Debuting in the 30 Years Since H.O.T. (1996–2025)."

(Photo provided by Big Hit Music (HYBE), Yonhap News)