Russian warships have disappeared from the Mediterranean since early July, marking the first such absence in over a decade, the French daily Le Parisien reported on July 21 (local time).

According to the Russian military observer group, an open-source intelligence monitor, it is estimated that the last of Russia's warships departed the Mediterranean earlier this month.

This is the first time since 2013 that Russia has not deployed a single warship in the region.

Since 2013, Russia has maintained a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean to support its intervention in the Syrian civil war, secure the Tartus base in Syria, counter NATO's expansion into the south, and maintain its influence in the Middle East and Mediterranean region.

The withdrawal is analyzed as a complex result of the fallout from the war in Ukraine, transit restrictions imposed by Turkey, and the weakening of Russian influence in Syria.

One of the most significant constraints emerged immediately after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

Under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, Turkey has been restricting warships of belligerent nations from passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

This has made it difficult for Russia to move Black Sea Fleet vessels into the Mediterranean, further complicating ship rotations and the movement of troops and supplies.

Furthermore, with the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship in Syria in late 2024, Russia has lost a key ally.

The port of Tartus in Syria had long been the only hub where the Russian Navy, operating in the Mediterranean, could refuel, resupply, and conduct ship repairs.

However, since Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of the Sunni Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took power, the scope of Russia's access to the facility has been significantly reduced.

The Russian military observer group analyzed on the social media platform Bluesky that "Tartus appears to be transforming from a logistics base for the permanent presence of the Russian Navy into a small-scale logistics hub."

According to the observer group, some Russian vessels have been redeployed to other regions and are currently performing escort missions for Russian government and special-purpose ships in Northern European waters.

These vessels are reportedly operating particularly in waters near the United Kingdom.

The last Russian vessels observed in the Mediterranean were the frigate Admiral Kasatonov and the supply ship Akademik Pashin.

The two ships called at the port of Tartus in early June before exiting the Mediterranean via Egypt and Algeria.

United24, a media outlet specializing in Ukraine, analyzed that this withdrawal demonstrates Russia's difficulties in maintaining a fleet in waters far from its home bases.

However, it assessed that this does not mean the Russian Navy has permanently abandoned the Mediterranean, which remains a strategic region.

The Mediterranean is a strategic chokepoint that the Russian fleet must pass through when moving to the Atlantic and other operational theaters.

Russia is reportedly searching for a new overseas base to replace Syria.

The Wall Street Journal reported last December that Russia is considering the Red Sea coast of Sudan in Africa as a potential candidate site.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)