It has been five years and five months since the Myanmar military staged a coup on February 1, 2021. The resistance, which began with street protests opposing the coup, has expanded into a nationwide armed conflict, and fighting continues between the military, the People's Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG), and ethnic armed organizations.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that more than 16 million people in Myanmar are in need of humanitarian assistance, and approximately 3.8 million people are internally displaced. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), as of July 20, the number of people confirmed killed by the military and pro-military forces since the coup is 8,186. A total of 31,539 people have been arrested by the military, with 14,581 of them confirmed to be currently in detention.
Amid this, a shift is being detected in ASEAN's approach to resolving the Myanmar crisis. In Manila, Philippines, an expanded informal consultation addressing the implementation of ASEAN's peace initiative for Myanmar, the 'Five-Point Consensus', was held yesterday (July 20), followed by the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting today (July 21). Related schedules, including the post-ministerial conferences with dialogue partners, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the East Asia Summit (EAS) Foreign Ministers' Meeting, will continue until the day after tomorrow (July 23).

Will ASEAN's new engagement mark the beginning of dialogue that accelerates peace in Myanmar? Or will it become a process that restores legitimacy to a military junta that has made no concessions, such as halting violence or releasing political prisoners?
In an exclusive interview with SBS, Sai Khaing Myo Tun, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Myanmar's National Unity Government, stated, "We have not seen any progress in the implementation of the 'Five-Point Consensus,'" adding, "Attempts to normalize the military at this point are inappropriate." Deputy Minister Sai particularly urged, "ASEAN must not fall into the trap set by the military," calling for the voices of democratic forces to be reflected in ASEAN's policies. Deputy Minister Sai described the current battlefield situation in Myanmar not as one side having a unilateral advantage, but as a seesaw battle where the military and resistance forces repeatedly capture and lose territory.
 
He said that civilian casualties continue as the military's airstrikes and ground attacks persist.
 
Deputy Minister Sai also mentioned that the military is receiving support from some countries. However, he avoided giving a specific answer, stating that he did not wish to publicly disclose which countries they are. When asked about the roles China and Russia play in maintaining the military's power, he expressed a principled stance, saying that neighboring countries must accurately understand the actual situation in Myanmar and help build sustainable peace.
  The Myanmar military held general elections in three rounds from December last year to January this year. In elections where major democratic parties and opposition forces were excluded, the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) seized control of parliament, and on April 3, the pro-military parliament elected Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, as president.

Although the military advertises this as a 'transition from military rule to a civilian government', criticism continues in the international community that it is an attempt to repackage military rule in the form of a civilian government. The cabinet of the new government is also mostly comprised of former military officers or pro-military figures. Deputy Minister Sai argued that the military is not pursuing a genuine transition to civilian rule, but is instead trying to entrench its dominance in civilian politics.
 
He emphasized that the military has repeatedly used violence and oppression against forces that do not follow their policies, and that the international community must not take the military's claims and promises at face value.
 
In Myanmar, ethnic minorities have demanded autonomy, equal rights, and the preservation of their cultural identity for over 70 years. However, Deputy Minister Sai explained that while the military claims to be the force defending national unity, it has failed to practically guarantee the rights of ethnic minorities.
  ASEAN adopted the 'Five-Point Consensus' in April 2021 to resolve the Myanmar crisis. The core of this consensus includes an immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue among all parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy and a visit to Myanmar, and humanitarian assistance. However, the military has not implemented the agreement. Consequently, ASEAN has refrained from inviting the military's political leaders to high-level meetings, such as summits and foreign ministers' meetings.
However, a change has been detected. Following the first face-to-face meeting between ASEAN foreign ministers and the Myanmar foreign minister since the coup on July 12, a consultation attended by the military's negotiation committee and some ethnic armed organizations was held on July 13. However, the NUG was not invited to the consultation on July 13. Deputy Minister Sai stated that the NUG has not received any official explanation from ASEAN or the Philippine government regarding why they were excluded from this consultation.
 
He claimed that the military has historically used a so-called 'divide and rule' strategy, contacting opposing forces individually to weaken the solidarity between the democratic camp and ethnic minority groups.
 
However, the Philippines, which holds the ASEAN chairmanship, maintains the position that the ASEAN special envoy is contacting various stakeholders in Myanmar, including the NUG, separately from specific consultations. Philippine Foreign Undersecretary Maria Theresa Lazaro, the ASEAN special envoy, stated that she will continue engagement with all stakeholders, including the NUG and ethnic armed groups, and will report the outcomes of the relevant consultations to the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila. Deputy Minister Sai did not say that he unconditionally opposes ASEAN's contact with the military itself. However, he emphasized that high-level engagement should not be expanded before the military takes tangible steps, such as halting violence, releasing political prisoners, and engaging in inclusive political dialogue.
 
Deputy Minister Sai said that the release of political prisoners and a cessation of violence must precede the return of the military leadership to high-level meetings, such as ASEAN summits and foreign ministers' meetings. He particularly criticized the military for talking about reconciliation and peace while failing to present a concrete stance on the practical implementation of the ASEAN 'Five-Point Consensus' or the conditions for political dialogue.
 
The NUG also worries that the military's so-called '100-Day Peace Initiative' may not be a genuine inclusive dialogue, but rather a means to gain international recognition for the military's own peace process.
  When asked if the NUG is prepared to negotiate directly with the military-led government headed by Min Aung Hlaing, Deputy Minister Sai replied that it must be guaranteed that there will be no return to military rule. He also emphasized that various parties, including the democratic camp and ethnic minorities, must discuss together how Myanmar will transition into a federal democratic union.
  Deputy Minister Sai stated that the NUG has no information regarding the health and location of State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, who is detained by the military.
 
When asked if they could confirm whether State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi is alive, he replied that the NUG cannot confirm it. He also said he had not heard of any claims that the military had allowed her to contact foreign government officials.
  Deputy Minister Sai also delivered a separate message to the South Korean government and its people. Expressing gratitude for South Korea's support for Myanmar's democratization movement, he requested that South Korea refrain from recognizing or legitimizing the Myanmar military as a lawful government and instead expand engagement with democratic forces, including the NUG.
 
Deputy Minister Sai also appealed for South Korea's support in the fields of education and healthcare, alongside humanitarian assistance.
  With violence and humanitarian crises persisting in Myanmar for over five years, it is difficult to deny that ASEAN's existing approach has failed to yield distinct results. Consequently, voices calling for direct dialogue with all parties, including the military, are growing. This is a realistic view that without meeting the military, it is difficult to bring about a cessation of violence, expansion of humanitarian aid, or political negotiations. Indeed, the Thai government recently stated that both the military and rebel forces are open to dialogue, expressing its willingness to broker peace negotiations in the future.

However, the issue raised by the NUG is not the dialogue itself. The problem lies in the sequence and method of resuming high-level contacts with the military without tangible steps toward de-escalating violence, releasing political prisoners, and engaging in inclusive political dialogue. Simply avoiding meetings with the military cannot end the war in Myanmar. However, a dialogue that fails to sufficiently include the voices of the democratic camp, ethnic minorities, and citizens who are the direct victims of violence is also unlikely to lead to sustainable peace. Whether ASEAN will utilize contact with the military as a means of pressure for peace, or open a pathway for the military to secure international legitimacy, is a question that the Manila meeting must answer.