As Volkswagen moves to cut 100,000 jobs, a new forecast suggests that nearly half of all automotive jobs in Europe could disappear within the next decade or so.

According to the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit on July 16 (local time), the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research analyzed that employment in the automotive industry, including parts suppliers, could drop by 375,000 by 2030, 660,000 by 2035, and 726,000 by 2040.

As of last year, there were approximately 1.6 million people employed in the European automotive industry.

If these predictions hold, it would mean a 45% reduction in jobs in this sector by 2040.

The European automotive industry is at risk of losing its domestic market as it falls behind in competition with Chinese companies and lags in the transition to electric vehicles.

According to the consulting firm EY, the European Union (EU) recorded a trade deficit with China in the automotive sector for the first time last year, with exports of vehicles and parts to China totaling 16 billion euros (approximately 27.1 trillion won) and imports from China reaching 22 billion euros (approximately 33.3 trillion won).

The German business newspaper Handelsblatt, citing data from Chinese customs authorities, reported that China's vehicle exports last month increased by about 73% compared to the previous year, surpassing 1.06 million units and exceeding the 1 million mark for the first time on a monthly basis.

The Fraunhofer Institute pointed out, "Without countermeasures, Europe risks becoming permanently dependent on third countries for core technologies."

In Germany, Europe's largest car producer, parts suppliers have been the first to cut jobs due to the transition to electric vehicles.

Recently, finished car manufacturers have also been pursuing workforce restructuring to address overcapacity and reduce costs.

Volkswagen Group, which decided to cut 35,000 jobs in 2024, is currently planning further restructuring, including cutting up to 100,000 jobs—15% of its global workforce—and leasing or selling high-cost German plants to companies such as defense contractors.

BMW is also in negotiations with its labor union regarding workforce restructuring.

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, employment in the automotive industry as of the end of the third quarter of last year was 721,400, a 6.3% decrease from a year earlier.

This was the lowest level since the second quarter of 2011, when it stood at 718,000.