As the KOSPI has recently seen a sharp decline, a brokerage report that predicted this trend two months ago is drawing significant attention.

However, the analyst behind the report now suggests that the KOSPI is at a low point, noting that earnings estimates for the semiconductor sector remain stable.

Lee Jae-man, head of the Global Investment Analysis Department at Hana Securities, predicted in a report released in May that the bull market would end when "the market capitalization of SK Hynix, whose 2026–2027 net income estimate is smaller than that of Samsung Electronics, surpasses that of Samsung Electronics."

He viewed the moment SK Hynix overtakes Samsung Electronics as the market peak, citing the case of March 2000, when Cisco Systems, a network equipment company, surpassed Microsoft and GE to become the top company by market cap in the S&P 500 at the height of the dot-com bubble.

Indeed, the Nasdaq index plummeted shortly thereafter.

As Lee predicted, the KOSPI reached a peak of 9,114.55 on June 22, the day SK Hynix's market cap first surpassed that of Samsung Electronics. Since then, as of July 9, the KOSPI has fallen by 20% to 7,291.91, showing signs of a correction.

Some investors have revisited the report, referring to it as a "must-visit" post.

In a recent report, however, Lee assessed that the KOSPI is currently at a low point.

He stated, "Since 2023, the maximum decline of the KOSPI from its previous peak to its low point has been -20%. Applying this to the recent peak (9,114p), the low point is 7,290p," adding that the current index level allows for a rebound.

He also projected that if the KOSPI rebounds, it could reach over 11,000p.

Lee also dismissed recent concerns regarding a potential decline in AI investment by U.S. big tech companies and the peak of the semiconductor cycle as premature.

He expects the year-on-year investment growth rate of big tech companies to rise from 81% in the first quarter of 2026 to 90% in the third quarter.

However, he forecasted that "starting from the third quarter of 2027, when the growth rate of capital expenditure falls below the revenue growth rate, concerns that investment has passed its peak will likely emerge."

He also noted that while semiconductor profits are expected to increase through this year, they could decrease starting next year.

He identified oil prices and interest rates as future variables, as high interest rates and high oil prices could increase the cost of capital for big tech companies and dampen AI investment.

Lee stated, "It is too early to reflect concerns about U.S. hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta passing their investment peak and recovering capital at this point," adding, "The 12-month expected operating profits for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are both rising compared to the previous year and the previous month, so it is judged that the KOSPI has been excessively corrected."

Reported by Kim Minjeong | Video by Lee Da-in | Graphics by Yang Hye-min | Produced by SBS Digital News