Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil transport, is once again facing severe instability as the United States responds to Iranian attacks on merchant vessels with retaliatory airstrikes and the reinstatement of sanctions against Iran.

Concerns are rising that the energy supply chain, which had been cautiously recovering following a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, could face renewed disruptions.

According to The New York Times (NYT), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational organization that assesses maritime risks, raised the threat level for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz from substantial to severe on July 7 (local time).

The JMIC maritime threat scale consists of five levels: low, moderate, substantial, severe, and critical.

The substantial level serves as a warning that there is a possibility of attacks or disruptive acts.

The severe level indicates a dangerous state where there is a very high probability of intentional, hostile attacks occurring.

This upgrade in the alert level came immediately after three consecutive attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

The shipping industry considers these attacks to be the most serious incidents to occur in the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire.

According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) under the United Nations, one of the targeted vessels was the Al Rekayyat, a Qatari-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, which sustained damage in waters off the coast of Oman.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that one vessel caught fire after being struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman, another tanker suffered structural damage from a projectile attack, and a third vessel was targeted by a drone.

While Iranian authorities have not issued an official statement regarding the attacks on the vessels, neighboring countries have identified Iran as the force behind them.

Qatar condemned the incidents as an unacceptable attack on the safety and security of international maritime navigation, and Saudi Arabia also strongly criticized Iran, noting that its own tanker had been attacked.

The subsequent U.S. response has further heightened tensions in the strait.

The U.S. Central Command announced that day that it had launched airstrikes against Iran, characterizing the Iranian actions as targeting and attacking innocent merchant vessels carrying civilians in international waters.

Approximately two hours before launching the airstrikes, the U.S. also revoked the sanctions waivers that had permitted the sale of Iranian crude oil.

While the U.S. maintains that its actions are an economic and military response to Iran's attacks on merchant ships, Iran has pushed back, claiming that it is the U.S. that violated the ceasefire agreement, and has warned of retaliatory measures.

If the conflict between the two sides escalates militarily in the future, the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably suffer a major blow.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which had shown signs of recovery since the end of last month following the ceasefire, is shrinking again due to Iran's continued threats against vessels.

Before the war, more than 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, but as of July 6, only 36 vessels passed through, with only three of those using the Omani route supported by the U.S. Navy.

Iran maintains that while transit through its own territorial waters is permitted, vessels should not use the Omani waters on the opposite side.

The central part of the strait, which was primarily used by ships before the war, is being avoided by vessels due to the risk of sea mines laid by the Iranian military.

Ami Daniel, CEO of maritime data firm Windward, analyzed Iran's reason for monitoring the Omani route, stating that it is a very carefully planned strategy to induce ships to sail near Iran and eventually force them to pay transit fees.

The decline in shipping and the military tension are also impacting the international energy market.

Brent crude prices rose following the news of the U.S. reinstating sanctions on Iran, reaching approximately 76 dollars per barrel at one point.

Although Brent crude prices had soared to 118 dollars per barrel when concerns over supply disruptions were at their peak early in the war, the market had been stabilizing due to expectations of energy supply recovery following the ceasefire.

(Photo: Yonhap News)