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Era of Power: 'Rearmament Domino' Accelerates Arms Race Amid Security Order Reshuffling

Kim Minpyo

Published : Jul 7, 2026 3:39 PM


▲ ICBM (File Photo: Yonhap News)

The arms race, which had eased for a time following the end of the Cold War, is once again sweeping across the globe.

As the United States prioritizes its own national interests, the unipolar international order is wavering, and strategic competition among major powers is intensifying. Coupled with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, major nations are accelerating their efforts to secure strategic weapons.

Allies that were once under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, such as Japan and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are rushing to expand their defense capabilities, while China appears to be speeding up the buildup of its nuclear and naval forces.

Analysts suggest that the international order is being reshaped into a multipolar era defined by power, as countries in India and Southeast Asia also begin to acquire advanced weaponry.

◇ U.S. Accelerates Nuclear Deterrence Modernization; Russia Counters with 'Satan 2' ICBM

The Donald Trump administration has begun in earnest to strengthen its nuclear deterrence.

In October last year, President Trump ordered the Department of Defense to resume nuclear testing, and six days later, the U.S. military test-fired a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

In December last year, the U.S. showcased its nuclear modernization by unveiling the development site and underground launch facilities for the LGM-35 Sentinel, a third-generation ICBM.

The U.S. plan is to modernize its current primary weapon system, the second-generation Minuteman III ICBM, with the Sentinel.

During the recent war with Iran, the U.S. released photos of a next-generation B-21 bomber being refueled in mid-air and issued a press release revealing the locations of its nuclear submarines, which are typically considered top-secret information.

This is interpreted as a demonstration of the overall capabilities of the U.S. nuclear triad, which consists of ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers.

Russia also countered in May by demonstrating its latest strategic weapon system capabilities with the test-fire of the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM.

The Sarmat, known as Satan 2, is reportedly capable of carrying over a dozen nuclear warheads at once.

Russia stated that both the range, which exceeds 35,000 km, and the accuracy of the missile are double those of existing missiles, and announced plans to deploy it for operational use by the end of this year.

The public test-fire of the Sarmat took place just three months after the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the only nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia—the world's largest nuclear powers—further amplifying concerns within the international community.

Europe is also gradually unlocking its nuclear restrictions.

Last month, the Finnish parliament passed a bill lifting a ban that had been in place since 1980 on the possession of nuclear weapons within its territory.

Finland shares a border with Russia that stretches over 1,300 km.

Lithuania, a Baltic nation, also moved this month to push for the repeal of Article 137 of its constitution, which prohibits the stationing of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, and foreign military bases.

Last month, the United Kingdom announced a defense investment plan aimed at strengthening its nuclear deterrence through nuclear submarines and new nuclear warheads, while France decided to expand the provision of its nuclear umbrella to other European countries.

◇ SLBMs, Aircraft Carriers, Hypersonic Weapons: China's Military Rise Targeting the U.S.

China is shifting the focus of its military buildup from conventional forces to an all-encompassing military rise that includes nuclear forces, blue-water naval capabilities, and the development of advanced weapons.

Analysts suggest that this is driven by a strong intention to deter U.S. military intervention in the event of a Taiwan contingency while building a deterrent capable of countering the U.S.-led order.

A symbolic display of this was the SLBM test-fire conducted on the 6th.

China demonstrated its operational capabilities for sea-based nuclear forces by launching a strategic missile equipped with a dummy warhead from a strategic nuclear submarine into the open waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Although China did not disclose the specific model, military experts are leaning toward the possibility that it was the new JL-3 SLBM, which is known to have a range of over 10,000 km.

While the state-run Global Times claimed regarding this test-fire that "the stronger China's nuclear power, the more peace in the Asia-Pacific is guaranteed," Taiwan military experts interpret it as a strengthening of nuclear deterrence to suppress U.S. intervention in Taiwan.

The expansion of naval power is also proceeding rapidly.

Following the Liaoning and the Shandong, China officially commissioned its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, in November last year, which adopts an electromagnetic catapult system.

Recently, in a promotional video released to mark the 77th anniversary of the founding of its navy, China hinted that its fourth aircraft carrier would be nuclear-powered.

The development of advanced weapons is also gaining speed.

China is simultaneously pursuing the development of hypersonic glide vehicles, medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, the J-20 stealth fighter, and the H-20 long-range strategic bomber, carrying out modernization across all domains: land, sea, and air.

Last month, China showcased its long-range precision strike capability by releasing footage of the launch of the DF-17 hypersonic missile, which is known to have a maximum range of 1,500 to 2,500 km.

Such military buildup is also clearly evident in activities surrounding Taiwan.

Incursions by military aircraft and warships across the median line of the Taiwan Strait have become routine, and China is continuing drills to block U.S. military reinforcements in the event of a contingency by expanding its operational range to the waters east of Taiwan.

Experts analyze that China's military strategy is evolving beyond preparing for a Taiwan contingency toward deterring U.S. military intervention itself.

They suggest that the simultaneous strengthening of nuclear forces, aircraft carriers, and advanced weapons, along with the expansion of its operational radius into the Pacific, is a strategic move to build multi-layered deterrence in preparation for strategic competition with the U.S.

◇ Japan and Australia Also Increase Defense Capabilities; Reshuffling of Indo-Pacific Security Axis

Japan is accelerating the strengthening of its defense capabilities in response to changes in U.S. alliance strategy and China's expanding military power.

The Sanae Takaichi cabinet plans to revise the three major security documents—the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program—within this year to expand its defense capabilities and significantly increase defense spending.

In April, Japan relaxed its defense equipment export regulations to allow the export of lethal weapons on a case-by-case basis.

This is interpreted as a move to foster its domestic defense industry while unifying weapon operation systems with allies like the U.S. to enhance joint training and combined operational capabilities in times of contingency.

The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) into the Self-Defense Forces' command and control system is also being pursued.

The acquisition of long-range strike capabilities is also in full swing.

Early this year, the Self-Defense Forces deployed long-range missiles with a range of 1,000 km, which put China within range, and last month, they conducted large-scale firing drills using counter-attack missiles with a range of several hundred kilometers.

U.S. Forces Japan has also strengthened deterrence against China by deploying the Typhon system, capable of operating Tomahawk cruise missiles, into Japanese drills, and expanding the operation of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) deployed in Okinawa.

Australia, India, and the Philippines are also accelerating their force buildup.

Based on the AUKUS security partnership with the U.S. and the U.K., Australia plans to deploy U.S. Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) starting next year and is scheduled to receive three second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the U.S. starting in 2032.

Furthermore, Australia plans to introduce U.S. advanced technology to jointly develop AUKUS-class nuclear-powered SSNs with the U.K. and deploy them to the front lines starting in the early 2040s. Additionally, following the Ukraine war, Australia is focusing on developing drone power, which has emerged as a game changer in modern warfare.

India, which has been the world's second-largest arms importer over the past five years, is also strengthening its military power after engaging in an armed conflict with neighboring Pakistan last year that nearly escalated into all-out war.

India, which increased its defense budget by 15% (16 trillion won) this year, decided in January to purchase and co-produce 114 French-made Rafale fighter jets to strengthen its air power, and recently decided to purchase medium-range surface-to-air missiles and suicide-type kamikaze drones.