The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has restored its crude oil exports to levels seen before the Iran war, immediately after breaking free from production quota constraints following its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Bloomberg reported on July 1 (local time).

With the volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz now exceeding 10 million barrels per day, analysts suggest that Iran's ability to control the strait is rapidly weakening.

According to Bloomberg, the UAE's exports of crude oil and condensate (an ultra-light crude oil byproduct from natural gas extraction) surged by approximately 30 percent from the previous month in June, surpassing 3.9 million barrels per day.

This figure is close to the highest level recorded since 2017.

Bloomberg explained that this data was compiled from vessel tracking information provided by energy market analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler.

Reuters also reported, based on an analysis of Vortexa and Kpler data, that June exports reached 3.7 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous record of 3.44 million barrels per day set in April 2020.

There are two bypass strategies the UAE employed to achieve this surge in crude oil exports despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war.

One is the operation of so-called dark vessels, which secretly pass through the strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off.

The other method involves transporting crude oil via a bypass pipeline connected to the eastern coastal port of Fujairah, and then transferring it to other ships in the Gulf of Oman.

Citing a U.S. government official, Bloomberg reported that, bolstered by defensive support from the U.S. military, commercial traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded 10 million barrels per day.

Before the war, the daily volume of crude oil passing through the strait was approximately 20 million barrels, accounting for one-fifth of the global supply.

When combined with the 5 million barrels transported through bypass routes, the total volume is nearing normal levels, according to the report.

Crude oil shipments from the Gulf region, excluding Iran, also surged by 65 percent in June compared to the previous month, reaching 7 million barrels per day.

The official analyzed that Iran has recently resumed attacks after belatedly realizing that its control over the strait has been effectively neutralized.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has expanded its sales channels to Africa, the U.S. West Coast, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean, supplying crude oil to the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and Tupras in Turkey.

The UAE ended its nearly 60-year membership in OPEC on May 1.

The decision was made to maximize the value of its resources by escaping production quota constraints.

Since the withdrawal, the market has been focused on how much crude oil the UAE would be able to supply to the market.

Goldman Sachs warned that if the impact of the Iran war eases and transit through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, the global crude oil market could return to a state of oversupply.

With the overall recovery in exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including the surge in UAE exports, combined with progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the price of Brent crude futures for August delivery fell to the 71 dollar per barrel range on this day, returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war.