Video
As the global semiconductor market continues its rally, some are warning that the strong performance of these semiconductor stocks could soon come to an end.
U.S. memory company SanDisk saw its stock price soar by nearly 11% overnight, achieving a record-breaking rise of over 850% this year alone.
However, Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for the movie The Big Short, has poured cold water on this trend.
According to foreign media outlets including CNBC on July 1 (local time), Burry stated on his blog regarding the announcements by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to build secondary semiconductor production hubs, "The direct cause of the stock price rise is the large-scale spending announced in South Korea."
He further described the bull market in the U.S. stock market as "the beginning of the end. It is only a matter of time now."
This is interpreted to mean that while investment momentum originating from Korea is currently supporting the rally, that driving force will soon fade.
Burry continued to explain his reasoning, stating, "The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is trading about 65% above its 200-day moving average, which has entered an overheating zone reached only during the dot-com bubble in 2000."
Burry has made aggressive short-selling bets against Nvidia and Tesla, as well as the semiconductor ETF SOXX.
In reality, Wall Street remains sharply divided over whether the semiconductor super-cycle will continue.
Optimists predict that the global memory shock will persist until next year, as supply capacity is far insufficient compared to the explosive demand for AI.
The analysis that memory companies can avoid the sharp price crashes of the past by signing multiple long-term supply contracts is also gaining traction.
On the other hand, skeptics warn that semiconductors are ultimately just typical cyclical products where supply and demand periodically flip, and that over-investment by big tech companies could return as a boomerang at any time.
Furthermore, with the upcoming U.S. ADR listing of SK Hynix on the 10th, observations that funds could flow out of existing leading stocks like Micron are adding to market anxiety.
Reported by Lee Hyeon-yeong | Video by Ahn Jun-hyeok | Graphics by Yang Hye-min | Produced by SBS Digital News