A simulation of various scenarios involving the Strait of Hormuz suggests that South Korea will be able to manage the situation well through August, according to a recent report.

The report, released by the U.S. consulting firm The Asia Group on June 30 (local time), reached this conclusion after conducting 50 simulations over a 180-day period, based on data as of June 11, to account for various potential scenarios in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Asia Group projected that "South Korea will manage supply disruptions through August, but political friction could surface if the supply disruption scenario persists into the autumn."

The firm noted that in 40 out of the 50 simulations, the president's approval rating remained relatively stable. However, if supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz were to continue severely into the autumn, the rating dropped to the mid-40 percent range.

While semiconductor production shows strong resilience, the simulations indicated that production was reduced in 14 percent of cases due to helium procurement issues.

Qatar is the largest supplier of helium to South Korea.

As South Korean companies secured helium through alternative routes, full-scale production was possible in all scenarios through August.

In 43 out of the 50 simulations, the outlook indicated that full-scale production would be possible through December.

However, the report anticipated that there could come a point where helium reserves drop off like a cliff rather than gradually. In such a case, companies might reduce existing chip production and focus on high-value products such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).

The report stated that in 80 percent of the simulations, South Korea's aviation fuel exports plummeted, causing a tangible impact on importing countries, including the United States. It also noted that the accumulated deficit of the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) emerged as the greatest financial burden in all simulations.

The simulation model was developed by The Asia Group to assess the impact of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Asian markets, with the presidential office, the Bank of Korea, the National Assembly, and major conglomerates reflected as key entities.

In addition to South Korea, the report included analyses of the situations in China, Japan, and India.

Kurt Campbell, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and founder of The Asia Group, said during a video briefing on June 30, "The key point is that we are in a situation where we have effectively exhausted our stockpiles and buffers, so even minor, persistent disruptions are highly likely to lead to significant consequences in the future."

He added, "In almost every past case of supply chain disruption, political fallout followed, and I believe it is highly likely that such a situation will occur this time as well."

While the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a matter agreed upon in a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran, tensions remain high as both sides continue to engage in military skirmishes in the strait, keeping the passage constrained.