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A 'Nerve-Wracking' Wait While Watching Other Groups: What Are the Chances of Reaching the Round of 32?

Published : Jun 26, 2026 6:29 AM


[Anchor]

Since the team finished third in its group, it must rank among the top eight out of the 12 third-placed teams to advance to the Round of 32. While the probability of falling below that threshold is not high, nothing is certain yet.

Reporter Hong Seok-jun has the story.

[Reporter]

In this tournament, the top eight teams among the 12 third-place finishers from each group advance to the Round of 32. The ranking for third-placed teams is determined first by points, and if points are tied, by goal difference, followed by goals scored.

If those are also equal, fair play points are applied.

Fair play points favor teams with fewer yellow and red cards.

With group stage matches for groups A, B, and C now concluded, our team trails Bosnia, the third-place team in Group B, in points, but leads Scotland, the third-place team in Group C, in goal difference.

Including the current third-place teams from the nine groups that have only played two matches so far, we are currently ranked 4th out of 12. However, it is highly likely that our advancement to the Round of 32 will not be decided until all matches are completed this coming Sunday.

A prominent overseas statistics outlet has offered a positive outlook, estimating our national team's probability of reaching the Round of 32 at 88%.

If advancement to the Round of 32 is confirmed, we will face either Germany, which has secured 1st place in Group E, or the winner of Group G.

In Group G, Egypt, Iran, and Belgium are competing for the top spot, with the final third-round matches scheduled for this coming Saturday.

Mathematically, if the national team advances, it is more likely that we will face the winner of Group G.

[Interview: Lee Han-beom / National Football Team Defender: I understand that if we advance, we could potentially play against Egypt (from Group G). Since African players are fast, we will prepare well to avoid conceding counterattacks like we did today.]

If we face the winner of Group G, the match will be held in Seattle, USA, next Thursday, allowing for some time to recover physical strength.

On the other hand, if we face Group E winner Germany, we would have to play in Boston, USA, next Tuesday.

In that case, we would have to travel to Boston on Monday, one day before the match, immediately after the entire group stage concludes, making for a tight schedule.

(Video Editing: Jang Hyun-ki, Design: Choi Jin-hwe)