Consumer expectations for rising home prices and wages have increased, driven by large-scale performance bonuses from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as a favorable stock market.

According to the Consumer Survey results released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) today (June 23), the Housing Price Outlook Index for June stood at 120, up 8 points from the previous month, returning to levels seen at the beginning of this year.

The index had gradually declined from 124 in January to 108 in February and 96 in March, falling below the 100 mark, before rebounding rapidly to 104 in April, 112 in May, and 120 in June.

The Wage Level Outlook Index for June also rose by 2 points to 124, marking the highest level since July of last year (124).

Lee Heung-hoo, head of the Economic Sentiment Survey Team at the BOK, analyzed, "The recent expansion in apartment sales and jeonse (long-term deposit rental) prices, particularly in the Seoul and Gyeonggi regions, along with rising stock prices due to the semiconductor boom and significant performance bonuses in the IT sector, appear to have influenced consumer sentiment regarding housing prices."

He added, "The high first-quarter growth rate, the strong semiconductor market, and the payment of IT sector bonuses are also assessed to have impacted consumer expectations for wages."

The Interest Rate Outlook Index, which predicts interest rate levels six months from now, surged by 12 points to 126.

This represents the largest increase in nine years and six months since December 2016 (+12 points).

Lee explained that the BOK's repeated signals regarding potential base interest rate hikes appear to have influenced consumer policy expectations.

The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) for June rose by 0.5 points to 106.6.

Following the impact of the Middle East conflict, the index had fallen sharply from 112.1 in February to 107.0 in March and 99.2 in April, but it has now rebounded for two consecutive months, starting in May and continuing through June.

The CCSI is an indicator calculated using six indices: current living conditions, future living conditions, future household income, future consumer spending, current economic judgment, and future economic outlook.

A reading above 100 indicates that consumer sentiment is optimistic compared to the long-term average (2003–2025), while a reading below 100 indicates pessimism.

Compared to May, the current economic judgment index (86) among the six components of the CCSI rose by 3 points, driven by strong exports centered on semiconductors and rising stock prices.

Conversely, the future economic outlook index fell by 1 point due to concerns over rising loan interest rates and high stock price levels.

The indices for future living conditions (97), future household income (100), and future consumer spending (110) remained unchanged.

Lee stated, "Although the consumer sentiment index has not yet reached pre-Middle East conflict levels due to high inflation and a high exchange rate, it has risen for two consecutive months, suggesting that optimistic economic perceptions relative to the long-term average are continuing."

The expected inflation rate for the next year remained at 3.0%, the same as the previous month.

(Photo: Yonhap News)