Oil-Producing Nations Vow 'Never Returning to Hormuz'; Strait Reopens After 4 Months but Reduced to 'Half-Capacity'

The Strait of Hormuz, which had been blocked for four months, is set to reopen as the United States signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend their truce by 60 days.

However, outlooks suggest that crude oil shipments passing through the strait are unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

Foreign media outlets, including Bloomberg, reported on a related analysis by investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs projected that even after the war ends, oil shipments through the strait will only reach about 70 percent of pre-war levels.

The report was even titled, "70% of pre-war Hormuz traffic will become the new 100%."

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an average of about 20 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait before the war.

In contrast, the currently visible traffic is only about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Even when adding the 1.6 million barrels from so-called "dark voyages"—ships transiting the Gulf of Oman with their location transponders turned off—the total remains far below previous levels.

For shipments to fully normalize, an additional 13 million barrels per day must be recovered.

However, Goldman Sachs assessed that a full recovery is virtually impossible.

The primary reason is that alternative transport routes established by oil-producing nations during the war have already taken firm root.

Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil giant Aramco has maximized the utilization rate of its East-West Pipeline leading to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also actively utilized its pipeline connected to the Port of Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq has similarly diverted a massive portion of its export volume to the pipeline heading to the Port of Ceyhan in Turkey.

The volume of crude oil bypassed through these alternative routes alone reaches 7.5 million barrels per day.

The "escape from Hormuz" by major oil-producing nations appears to be solidifying into a structural shift rather than a temporary, one-off response.

Indeed, earlier this month, the UAE officially announced plans to expand coastal ports along the Gulf of Oman and build new harbors.

The initiative aims to completely eliminate reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

Thani al-Zeyoudi, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, declared, "Regardless of whether the strait is open or not, we are moving toward 'zero' reliance."

He added, "We will not stop our plans to secure new alternative transport routes."

Even Kuwait, which lacks its own bypass pipeline, has entered negotiations through its state-run oil company to share facilities with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Goldman Sachs predicted that oil shipments would increase to some extent by the end of next month due to the truce agreement.

It also analyzed that crude oil production in the Gulf region is expected to show a recovery trend around this coming October.

However, variables remain.

There is a significant possibility that operations to clear sea mines, which Iran may have laid during the war, will face difficulties.

Another obstacle is that Iran approved a draft bill last April that mandates transit permits and the collection of transit fees for vessels.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that some shipowners may still be reluctant to enter the strait due to safety concerns.

The war, which lasted for 107 days, has left scars far beyond simple physical damage.

Even the strategic status of the Strait of Hormuz, which used to account for 20 percent of global oil shipments, is being shaken to its core.

Oil-producing nations, having suffered from Iran's blockade of the strait, have diversified their transport routes, and this trend is expected to continue even after the war ends.

As experts predict, an era where "70 percent of pre-war levels becomes the new 100 percent" is fast approaching.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.