"The Glory Days of Bitcoin Are Over": Shocking Forecast Triggers Panic Among Retail Investors

A grim forecast suggests that Bitcoin's long-term annual return will fail to reach even 1% over the next century.

Mark Hulbert, a senior columnist for the U.S. financial media outlet MarketWatch, analyzed a fair value model for cryptocurrencies and predicted that the price of Bitcoin will converge to approximately $120,000—about 180 million won—by around 2140, when the supply limit is reached.

Bitcoin soared to a record high of $126,000 last year before recently plummeting to the $60,000 range. Hulbert argued that this is a "return to fair value after an excessive price surge."

This analysis is based on "Metcalfe's Law," which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its participants.

Virtual assets, including Bitcoin, are issued and traded through networks known as "blockchains." For instance, if the network size increases by 10%, its value grows by approximately 21%.

By substituting Bitcoin's cumulative issuance with the number of network users, the analysis points out that as the supply approaches the 21 million limit, the network growth rate will slow down, inevitably leading to a decline in the rate of value appreciation.

Ultimately, calculating the long-term return until mining ends completely in 2140 results in an annual rate of just 0.6%.

Some in the market are warning that "while the value of Bitcoin rises as the number of participants increases rapidly, it is difficult to expect the same sharp surge in returns as in the past, given that the speed of new issuance is gradually slowing down."

Reported by Lee Hyeon-yeong | Video by Kim Na-on | Graphics by Lee Jeong-ju | Produced by SBS Digital News
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.