▲ U.S. President Donald Trump
U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking just three days ahead of the midterm elections on October 31 local time, repeatedly mentioned a place that needs to be dealt with: Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, which is suspected to be a new underground nuclear facility.
According to foreign media reports, the mountain—nicknamed "Pickaxe Mountain" due to its shape—is one of the few facilities related to Iran's nuclear program that has not yet been targeted by U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The United States and Israel estimate that Pickaxe Mountain stores a portion of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, though this has not been definitively proven.
Uranium is a weapons-grade material that, through further enrichment, can be used to manufacture nuclear bombs in a short period of time.
President Trump, who launched a war against Iran alongside Israel on February 28 of this year, has repeatedly mentioned Pickaxe Mountain and stated his intention to strike it hard.
The reason he has yet to put this public pledge into action is because the nuclear facility inside Pickaxe Mountain is solidly constructed deep underground, to the extent that even advanced U.S. weapons cannot guarantee its destruction.
According to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a U.S. think tank, the elevation of Pickaxe Mountain is 1,608 meters.
Satellite imagery shows two tunnel-like entrances dug into both the eastern and western sides below the ridge.
According to Iranian media, while most of the surrounding mountain range consists of sedimentary rock, Pickaxe Mountain is composed of hard, dense granite.
The United States, Israel, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimate that Iran has constructed a fairly extensive nuclear facility 80 to 100 meters underground in this granite mountain.
Some analyses suggest it is deeper than the underground nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow, which the United States reportedly destroyed with bunker-buster bombs in June of last year, making it difficult to neutralize even with those weapons.
The GBU-57, the most powerful bunker-buster in the U.S. arsenal, is known to penetrate 18 meters of concrete or 61 meters of earth.
Experts remain skeptical about whether this weapon can pierce 100 meters of granite.
However, some projections suggest that the U.S. could effectively render the suspected nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain useless simply by attacking the tunnel entrances, communication systems, and access roads.
There are also analyses indicating that intensively targeting the ventilation systems essential for the underground complex could achieve the desired objective.
Some argue that the U.S. would need to deploy ground troops to completely neutralize the nuclear complex at Pickaxe Mountain, but President Trump has little choice but to be cautious, as this could lead to massive casualties for U.S. forces.
Pickaxe Mountain is located about 1.5 kilometers south of the Natanz nuclear complex, Iran's largest uranium enrichment facility.
A common explanation is that construction at Pickaxe Mountain shifted into high gear after a centrifuge assembly plant on the surface of the Natanz nuclear complex was heavily damaged in July 2020 by an unexplained fire.
Iranian authorities, believing the fire was an Israeli sabotage operation, reportedly sought out a safer location.
Ali Akbar Salehi, then-head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, stated in September 2020—without specifically mentioning Pickaxe Mountain—that a more modern, spacious, and comprehensive facility would be built in the mountainous area near Natanz.
However, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently criticized that no nuclear activities are taking place at Pickaxe Mountain and that U.S. threats are fabricated pretexts to justify aggression, destruction, and sabotage.
Iran has consistently maintained that the facility at Pickaxe Mountain is intended for producing and assembling advanced centrifuges.
Satellite images captured Iran continuing construction work around the access roads and tunnel entrances of Pickaxe Mountain for months even after the war began this year.
Spencer Faragasso, a researcher at the Institute for Science and International Security, told the BBC that he observed relatively steady construction work at the facility, adding that Iran has likely focused on continuing internal excavation work and reinforcing defenses to make the site safer from airstrikes.
The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that, as of last year, Iran held about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60%.
This level can reach the 90% purity required to build a nuclear bomb in a matter of weeks, leading to projections that the current stockpile could be used to manufacture 9 to 10 nuclear warheads.
While arguments have been raised that Iran may be storing some or all of the 440 kilograms at Pickaxe Mountain, this has not been confirmed.
President Trump has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of resuming attacks against Iran following the midterm elections on November 3.
Currently, President Trump is in a position where he needs justification to conclude the war with Iran and declare victory.
Consequently, some analyses suggest he is weighing a massive airstrike targeting Pickaxe Mountain as a symbolic act and evidence to support his achievement of rendering Iran's nuclear capabilities virtually disabled.
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