▲ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 28th (local time) that concerns are rising that the opposition missed a "historic" opportunity to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's regime in the Israeli general election.
Based on 86 percent of the votes counted that day, the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party secured 53 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset (parliament), while the Jewish opposition bloc centered around the Yesh Atid party, led by former Chief of the General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, garnered 48 seats.
The remaining 19 seats are projected to be won by two Arab parties, bolstered by high voter turnout among Israeli citizens of Arab descent.
While the Jewish opposition bloc could secure a majority of 67 seats—well above the 61-seat threshold—if they form an alliance with these parties, it remains uncertain whether this will lead to a change in government, as major Zionist party leaders have dismissed the idea.
The ruling coalition also lost about 10 seats compared to the 2022 election and failed to secure an outright majority on its own, pointing to a foggy political landscape where neither side can easily form a coalition government on its own.
Some observers speculate that right-leaning figures within the opposition, such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett or former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, could defect to Netanyahu's camp and help secure a majority.
On the other hand, Yair Golan, who leads the left-leaning Democratic Party of the opposition, urged an alliance with Arab parties, stating, "If we do not stop fear and racism, there is no future." However, internal divisions within the opposition make it difficult to form a unified front.
Regarding these results, the FT assessed it as "a devastating blow to long-time opponents who headed to the polls expecting a historic opportunity to oust Prime Minister Netanyahu."
The outcome delivers an even heavier shock to the opposition given that the election took place following the October 7, 2023 Hamas invasion, which is considered the worst security disaster in Israel's history.
Shira Efron, a researcher at the think tank RAND Corporation, pointed out to the FT that "the opposition had the best conditions and circumstances to win this time."
She explained that despite an environment favorable to the opposition—including public anger over the security failures of the Netanyahu administration, tens of thousands of overseas nationals returning home to vote, and a mobilized electorate—they failed to translate this into victory.
Within the opposition, there is a growing wave of self-reflection that they lost because the opposition leadership failed to field a single candidate to challenge Prime Minister Netanyahu, relying instead on unfocused messaging centered simply on "Anyone but Netanyahu."
Critics argue that they failed to attract Prime Minister Netanyahu's traditional supporters and focused solely on criticizing the government without a clear vision for state governance.
Demographic shifts also worked against the opposition.
Roni Rimon, a political strategist who ran Netanyahu's 2009 election campaign, explained that over the past few decades, the rapid growth of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) and religious Zionist populations has made the right wing's overall support base thicker than that of the secular and liberal camp.
Although Prime Minister Netanyahu did not secure a total victory, he has survived the worst crisis of his political survival. With final vote counts and consultations with the president scheduled for next week, uncertainty in Israeli politics is expected to deepen further.
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