Oh Se-hoon's Acquittal Sparks Three-Way Rivalry Among Opposition Contenders

Following the appellate court's acquittal of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon last Friday, news coverage concerning figures in the opposition bloc has surged noticeably. While some stories addressed the conservative camp as a whole, including calls for unity centered on Mayor Oh, what truly captured attention was the rivalry and realignment among potential presidential contenders—echoing People Power Party Lawmaker Kim Jae-sub's description of Oh's ruling as a "defining moment of destiny." Today, we share the latest public opinion poll results regarding Mayor Oh Se-hoon, People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok, and independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon (listed in Korean alphabetical order).

Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who solidified his status as a leading opposition contender following a dramatic victory in the last local elections and his recent appellate acquittal in the "Myung Tae-kyun polling scandal," has often been described as having few loyal National Assembly members around him despite his illustrious career as a five-term mayor. Perhaps because his image as an administrator has solidified over that of a Yeouido politician, some harsh evaluations suggest he lacks both fervent supporters and fierce detractors. Yet last Friday, as many as 14 incumbent lawmakers gathered at the Seoul High Court to surround Mayor Oh. It is even said that there was subtle jockeying behind the scenes over prime positioning behind Oh for photographs.

First, long-time associates of Mayor Oh were in attendance: lawmakers Kwon Young-jin, Cho Eun-hee, and Eom Tae-young. Lawmaker Kwon served as Seoul's vice mayor for political affairs from 2006 to 2007 assisting Mayor Oh. Lawmaker Cho has maintained both policy and political ties with Mayor Oh since her time as the head of Seoul's Seocho District Office. Lawmaker Eom, along with Lawmaker Kim Jae-sub, is categorized as part of the pro-Oh faction within the party. Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok played a pivotal role in Mayor Oh's election victory as head of new media operations during the 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election, rising to party leader two months later.

Looking only at these figures, one might think, "The expected attendees have arrived." However, some rather unexpected faces were also present—lawmakers who had shown no distinct factional activity within the People Power Party following the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. Lawmakers Kim Seok-ki, Seo Myung-ok, and Cho Jung-hun have previously been classified as close to the pro-Yoon Suk Yeol faction or the traditional mainstream of the People Power Party. Lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun is also a senior figure who communicated closely with the mainstream during the Yoon administration, though he has recently emphasized conservative unity. Lawmakers from the Yeongnam region, including Kim Mi-ae, Shin Sung-bum, Lee Man-hee, and Lee Sang-hwi, were also notable. Park Soo-min and Kim So-hee, who were recruited under Han Dong-hoon's interim leadership committee but are currently considered to have faint factional ties, were also present. Collectively, some have described this as the full-fledged emergence of lawmakers who are "anti-Jang and non-Han"—those who oppose party leader Jang Dong-hyeok's course while keeping their distance from independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon.

While personality-driven political coverage is often criticized for becoming mired in power struggles rather than delving into public opinion and policy, it also offers useful insights into the current dynamics of the political arena. Amid a landscape where coverage of opposition figures is dominated by the trio of Oh Se-hoon, Jang Dong-hyeok, and Han Dong-hoon, the results of an opinion poll on them were released today.

KNA25 and PolyNews commissioned Hangil Research to conduct a poll on October 25 and 26 asking, "Who do you support as the next pan-conservative presidential candidate?"

Lawmaker Han Dong-hoon received 14.0%, Mayor Oh Se-hoon garnered 13.7%, and party leader Jang Dong-hyeok registered 11.7%. They were followed by Lawmaker Lee Jin-sook at 7.3%, former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min at 5.7%, former minister Kim Moon-soo at 4.5%, Lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo at 3.0%, and Lawmaker Lee Jun-seok at 2.4%. The margins separating Han, Oh, and Jang ranged from 0.3 percentage points to 2.3 percentage points, leaving all three within the sample's margin of error.

Because this survey examined potential opposition contenders, examining the figures by demographic segment provides further insight. By political party affiliation, among People Power Party supporters, party leader Jang Dong-hyeok led with 24.1%, followed by Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 23.6% and Lawmaker Han Dong-hoon at 17.8%. Similarly, the gaps among the three were within the margin of error. Among political ideologies (conservative, progressive, and moderate), conservatives favored Mayor Oh at 20.3%, leader Jang at 18.3%, and Lawmaker Han at 15.0%. Once again, they remained within the margin of error, making it difficult to declare a clear leader.

Regionally, in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, where support for the People Power Party and conservatives is relatively strong, Mayor Oh garnered 23.4%, Lawmaker Han 18.8%, and leader Jang 14.9%. Although the spread widened slightly, it also remained within the margin of error due to the smaller sample size.

The Hangil Research survey was conducted on 1,002 adults aged 18 and older nationwide using automated landline and mobile response systems. The sample error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 2.4%.

Prior to this, another survey measured favorability ratings for each figure.

In a Gallup Korea poll released on October 16 for the third week of October, 30% of respondents expressed a favorable view of Mayor Oh Se-hoon. Lawmaker Han Dong-hoon stood at 23%, and leader Jang Dong-hyeok registered 14%. Unfavorable ratings were 57% for Mayor Oh, 64% for Lawmaker Han, and 68% for leader Jang. Among People Power Party supporters, favorability stood at 63% for Mayor Oh, 47% for Lawmaker Han, and 35% for leader Jang. Among self-identified conservatives, favorability was 48% for Mayor Oh, 34% for Lawmaker Han, and 27% for leader Jang.

The Gallup Korea survey was conducted from October 13 to 15, prior to Mayor Oh's appellate verdict, through telephone interviews with 1,003 adults aged 18 and older nationwide. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 10.4%.

Although Mayor Oh Se-hoon was acquitted on appeal, the final ruling of the Supreme Court still remains. The Democratic Party is immediately escalating its pressure on the Supreme Court to the highest level. Lawmaker Kim Ki-pyo condemned the verdict as a "shambolic ruling" for acquitting him despite money changing hands in connection with polls, while Lawmaker Lee Sung-yoon held Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae accountable—also raising the issue of the refusal to re-nominate Supreme Court justices—stating, "The Chief Justice is holding political trials and issuing political directives as if he were an emperor."

Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok is not free from internal and external attacks framing him as a target for reform or resignation rather than an agent of unity. Recently, an audio recording was disclosed suggesting that he utilized claims of fraudulent elections as marketing during the national convention to become party leader despite not agreeing with them, raising doubts even among staunch supporters. Regarding unity itself, leader Jang remains resolute, stating, "I do not believe that embracing every faction is the answer."

Lawmaker Han Dong-hoon's Achilles' heel remains his independent status. Pundits assess that there is currently no clear solution for his reinstatement into the People Power Party or the expansion of his support base within the party. Following Mayor Oh's acquittal, the trend of lawmakers in the aforementioned "anti-Jang and non-Han" camp coalescing around Oh could accelerate. Lawmaker Lee Jun-seok, who is close to Mayor Oh, openly expressed hostility toward Han, calling him a "vulgar legal technician."

Mayor Oh remarked that "the general election is approaching" and vowed, "I will do my utmost to bring together the hearts of those with differing thoughts and philosophies." Leader Jang is firm in his intent to seek reelection, aiming to solidify stable leadership as the longest-serving leader of the People Power Party. Lawmaker Han assessed Mayor Oh as "someone who must walk together with us for the victory of the conservative camp."

Three primary factors will likely serve as turning points for these three figures: whether the leadership structure of leader Jang Dong-hyeok—whose term runs until August next year—undergoes changes before then; who will run for party leader on behalf of Mayor Oh, who cannot directly contest the next national convention; and how party sentiment will unfold regarding Lawmaker Han's potential reinstatement. (End)

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