▲ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot
In Israel's general election held yesterday (October 27) local time, the right-wing bloc led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition bloc led by former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot were locked in a neck-and-neck race.
Exit polls released immediately after voting closed showed a narrow lead for the opposition, but subsequent revised exit polls saw the Netanyahu camp increase its seat count, with some polls showing a reversal of the outcome.
However, neither side fell anywhere close to securing a majority of seats, leading to assessments that there is no clear winner.
If this ultra-close race is confirmed by official vote counts, whichever side attempts to form a coalition government is expected to face a turbulent negotiation process.
According to exit polls released by major local broadcasters immediately after voting ended at 10 p.m. yesterday local time, both anti-Netanyahu parties and pro-Netanyahu parties failed to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority to form a coalition.
Meanwhile, a revised exit poll by Israel's Channel 12 projected that Likud, the ruling party led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, would win the most seats as an individual party, taking 27 out of the 120 Knesset seats.
Pro-Netanyahu parties, including Likud, were projected to secure a total of 52 seats.
Four anti-Netanyahu Jewish opposition parties were projected to win 49 seats in total, including 21 seats for the Yisrael Beiteinu party led by Eisenkot.
Arab parties Ra'am and the Joint List were projected to secure 7 and 12 seats, respectively, holding the casting vote for forming the next government.
In contrast, revised exit polls from public broadcaster Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps tied at 51 seats each.
Arab parties were projected to secure 18 seats in both polls.
All three broadcasters projected that Likud would become the largest party with 27 seats.
Following the exit poll results, Eisenkot assessed that the outcome showed a "total loss of trust" in Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Speaking to supporters, Eisenkot stated that "the Israeli public has chosen change beyond the Netanyahu era," expressing his intent to push for the formation of a new government.
For Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has led a coalition with 68 seats so far, a plunge in seats to around 50 as suggested by the exit polls could deal a critical political blow, forcing him to step down from power.
However, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar of Likud wrote on social media platform X that "it is premature for the opposition to celebrate."
He emphasized that exit polls showed Likud winning the most seats among individual parties.
Because the race is so tight, it is expected to take some time before final vote counts are released.
Official results are scheduled to be announced on November 4.
Once official vote counts are out, President Isaac Herzog will consult with the leaders of each party and task the candidate with the highest likelihood of forming a coalition government with building a cabinet.
That candidate must secure a majority of seats within a maximum of six weeks, and failure to do so could pass the opportunity to another candidate.
The keys to forming a coalition theoretically lie with the Arab parties.
Possessing de facto casting votes, the Arab parties could play a role in coalition formation by supporting a specific faction from the outside without directly joining the coalition, or by abstaining from votes regarding the formation of the next government.
In fact, while not belonging to the anti-Netanyahu camp led by Eisenkot, Arab parties have shown openness to supporting the opposition bloc.
However, given that both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Eisenkot have thus far ruled out the possibility of an alliance with Arab parties, common consensus is that the probability of them overturning general election pledges just to seize power is low.
If no faction secures a majority of seats despite complex negotiations, Israel may ultimately have to hold another election early next year and restart the government formation process from scratch.
Until then, Prime Minister Netanyahu could extend his term as head of a transitional government.
Even if a re-election is held, the same deadlock could persist, further prolonging Netanyahu's tenure as interim prime minister.
In fact, Israel previously held five general elections over a three-and-a-half-year period prior to November 2022.
Marking the first general election held since Hamas's surprise attack on October 7, 2023, this election is being viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership.
With Arab residents and others—disappointed by the policies of the Netanyahu government, which has maintained an ultra-hardline stance over the past four years backed by far-right parties—turning out in droves to vote, voter turnout was unusually high by recent standards.
According to the Israel Central Election Commission, the final voter turnout for this election reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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