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Israel Election Neck-and-Neck: Exit Polls Show Anti-Netanyahu Bloc Slightly Ahead


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▲ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot

Israel's general election, which will determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu extends his rule, is projected to end without a clear winner, according to exit polls released on the 27th (local time).

Due to the neck-and-neck race, it may take time to confirm the leading party and weeks to determine the next prime minister, the Associated Press reported.

If coalition building faces difficulties, a rerun of the election may be necessary.

Exit polls released by broadcasters immediately after voting closed at 10 p.m. showed that anti-Netanyahu parties narrowly edged out pro-Netanyahu parties, though neither camp secured the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

According to The Times of Israel, Channel 12's exit poll projected that Prime Minister Netanyahu's ruling Likud party would win the most seats of any single party, with 24 out of the 120 total seats.

Pro-Netanyahu parties, including Likud, are projected to secure a total of 50 seats.

Four Jewish opposition parties leaning anti-Netanyahu are projected to win a total of 52 seats, including 22 for the Yashar party led by former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot.

Arab parties Ra'am and the Joint List are projected to secure 7 and 11 seats, respectively, acting as kingmakers for the formation of the next government.

Channel 13's exit poll also showed the anti-Netanyahu bloc winning 53 seats, the pro-Netanyahu bloc 50 seats, and Arab parties 17 seats, with other broadcasters releasing largely similar findings.

Following the release of the exit poll results, Eisenkot stated that the outcome showed a "total loss of confidence" in Prime Minister Netanyahu.

On the other hand, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar of the Likud party said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that it was "premature" for the opposition to celebrate.

He emphasized that exit polls showed Likud winning the most seats among individual parties.

Once official vote counts are released, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders and task the candidate most likely to form a coalition government with building one.

A majority must be secured within a maximum of six weeks, and if that fails, an opportunity may be given to another candidate.

Theoretically, Arab parties could play a decisive role in coalition building.

However, AP noted that both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Eisenkot have so far ruled out alliances with Arab parties.

Possibilities are also being raised that Arab parties could hold the key to forming a coalition by supporting it from the outside without directly participating, or by abstaining in votes related to the next government formation.

AFP reported that while Ra'am and the Joint List do not belong to Eisenkot's bloc, they have shown an openness to supporting the opposition camp.

If neither camp secures a majority through negotiations, a new election will be held within months, and the government formation process will start over from the beginning.

Until then, Netanyahu's government will remain in power as a caretaker government.

Even if a rerun is held, the same deadlock could persist.

Israel previously held five general elections in a three-and-a-half-year period leading up to November 2022.

This general election saw the highest voter turnout in decades, according to AFP.

According to the Central Election Commission, more than 74 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballots as of 8 p.m. that day.

This is an 8 percentage point increase compared to the 2022 general election.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)

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