Netanyahu Faces Defining Moment as Israel Holds General Election

▲ Campaign video featuring Prime Minister Netanyahu (right) and former military chief of staff Eisenkot (left)

Israel, marked by three years of ongoing conflict, has gone to the polls for its 26th general election to choose its next leader and government.

According to the Israel Central Election Commission, voting began at 7:00 a.m. local time today across 12,018 polling stations nationwide.

The main focus of this election—the first held since the Gaza war began following Hamas's surprise attack on October 7, 2023—is whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, will secure another term.

In the election to choose the 120 members of the Knesset (parliament), approximately 7.3 million eligible voters will cast ballots for party lists in a single nationwide constituency, with total seats distributed based on each party's share of the vote.

Parties must secure at least four seats (equivalent to 3.25% of the vote) to enter parliament, and votes cast for parties and party alliances that fail to clear this threshold will be wasted.

Following the general election, the president nominates the leader of the party most likely to form a coalition government as the prime candidate, who then becomes prime minister upon securing a parliamentary majority (at least 61 seats) through consultations with other parties.

It remains unlikely that any single party will win an outright majority through the vote this time as well.

In effect, this general election strongly resembles a vote of confidence on Netanyahu, the nation's longest-serving prime minister who has been in office for over 18 years.

Another major pressure point is the emergence of Gadi Eisenkot, a centrist new party leader and former military chief of staff, as Netanyahu's biggest rival.

Eisenkot was personally appointed as chief of staff by Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2014. He joined the wartime emergency unity cabinet immediately after the Hamas surprise attack, only to step down months later, criticizing Prime Minister Netanyahu for prolonging the war and putting hostages in danger.

Eisenkot lost his youngest son and two nephews in the fighting in Gaza.

The general assessment is that the race is extremely close, making it impossible to predict the outcome.

According to final polls by major broadcasters—excluding the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14—Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win 50 to 51 seats, while four Jewish opposition parties leaning anti-Netanyahu are projected to win 52 to 56 seats, leaving both sides short of the 61 seats needed for a majority to form a coalition.

Arab parties Ra'am and the Joint List are expected to secure 14 to 16 seats, positioning them to hold the casting vote in forming the next government.

Voting is scheduled to close at 10:00 p.m. local time, and exit polls by broadcasters that offer a glimpse of the actual race will be released immediately afterward.

The outline of seat allocations by party is expected to emerge over the course of the following hours and days.

Official election results will be announced on November 4.

Particularly due to the razor-thin race, experts predict it could take several days just to confirm the largest party, and even after that, it will remain unclear for some time who will become prime minister.

According to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), past government formations have taken anywhere from 20 to 100 days.

Through meetings with parties entering parliament, the president typically grants the party leader who receives the most recommendations 28 days (with a possible 14-day extension) to form a government, and that leader must build a coalition of 61 seats or more during this period to take office as prime minister.

If both sides fail to form a government, there is a possibility that an alternative government outside the coalition could be formed, and in the worst-case scenario, Israel could hold a new election next year with Netanyahu maintaining an interim prime minister role until then.

Ahead of the election, Prime Minister Netanyahu persistently stoked voters' anxiety by highlighting security threats.

Reports that he pushed for airstrikes against Iran right before the general election have also sparked fallout.

The New York Times reported today, citing three senior Israeli military officials and three sources briefed on the matter, that Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed for a new wave of airstrikes against Iran over the past several weeks, but faced opposition from Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir.

In the final stretch of the election campaign, Prime Minister Netanyahu also heightened a sense of crisis by posting an artificial intelligence-generated image on social media showing a nuclear mushroom cloud rising over Tel Aviv, declaring that this election would determine Israel's "existence."

The Israeli military announced that it carried out airstrikes in the northern, central, and southern parts of Gaza today, killing four Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)

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