▲ U.S. President Donald Trump
As the November 3 U.S. midterm elections approach, attention is focusing on shifting voter sentiments among Hispanics and young adults in their 20s, who propelled U.S. President Donald Trump to victory in the 2024 presidential election.
Projections suggest that the midterm election outcomes could hinge on how the disappointment toward President Trump and the disillusionment with politics expressed by these groups are reflected at the ballot box.
According to the U.S. daily The New York Times (NYT) on October 25 (local time), comparing voting records from President Trump's 2024 election victory with the 2020 election across demographics such as race, gender, and age revealed a particularly pronounced shift among Hispanic voters.
Overall, 54% of Hispanic voters supported the Democratic Party while 44% supported the Republican Party, marking a 19-percentage-point increase in Republican support over a four-year period.
Among Black voters, who have overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party, 13% voted for President Trump in 2024.
This represents an increase of 9 percentage points compared to four years prior.
Broken down by age group, support for Trump rose by 17 percentage points among voters aged 18 to 29.
While 53% overall supported the Democratic Party, a substantial number internally shifted their support to Trump.
Although support for President Trump increased across most groups, a significant shift in the voting sentiment of non-white voters—centered around Hispanics—and voters in their 20s effectively handed President Trump his victory.
Among younger demographics, men in particular actively backed President Trump.
Looking strictly at those aged 18 to 44, support shifted toward Trump by 15 percentage points among men and 8 percentage points among women.
However, projections indicate that those who played a major role in President Trump's return to the White House are highly likely to express disappointment and frustration in the upcoming midterm elections next week.
The NYT reported that Hispanics have emerged as the most critical swing vote in the United States, noting that the Democratic Party has largely regained the trust of Hispanic voters over the past two years.
The NYT pointed out, "In the 1990s in America, politicians competed for the support of 'soccer moms' (middle-class mothers driving children to after-school activities like soccer), and in the 2010s they targeted white working-class voters, but it is clear that the most important swing constituency of the 2020s is Latinos."
The NYT reported that recent polling data shows Latino voters favoring the Democratic Party over the Republican Party by 30 percentage points.
This represents a widening from the 19-percentage-point gap recorded in 2024 to 30 percentage points.
However, 42% of Latinos expressed dissatisfaction with both the Republican and Democratic parties, while 45% responded that there is no difference between the two parties.
While high inflation and stringent immigration enforcement have dashed expectations for President Trump, they are not sending overwhelming support to the Democratic Party as they did in the past.
"Generation Z" is also a demographic whose shifting voting sentiment in this midterm election is drawing close attention.
The average age for first-time homebuyers in the United States rose from 35 in 2023 to 38 in 2024, and further to 40 in 2025.
A survey also revealed that 60% of adults under the age of 25 have not achieved independence and live with their parents.
These indicators tarnish President Trump's promise to restore the "American Dream."
There is also the aspect that the Trump administration has failed to adequately address young people's concerns that securing jobs will become even more difficult due to the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI).
Discontent is also spreading that by maintaining "AI optimism," President Trump has abandoned his stance of dismantling the establishment and has instead become part of the establishment backing mega tech companies.
A Republican strategist told CNN, "The morale of the young people in our camp is broken. There is no use trying to hide uncomfortable truths."
The U.S. political media outlet Politico also pointed out through an in-depth interview with Generation Z that "while conservatism appeared to capture the interest of young Americans briefly following Trump's (presidential) victory, President Trump's failure to keep promises on price stability due to tariffs and the war with Iran could cause young people to turn their backs on the Republican Party in droves during the midterms."
Politico noted that while people often attempt to interpret the political behavior of Generation Z through cultural issues or internet trends, what ultimately drives their choices is economic anxiety and a sense of deprivation.
Politico expressed concern that Generation Z feels betrayed and harbors deep distrust regarding the functioning of the social system, and that rather than merely adopting a cynical stance and abstaining from voting, they could lean toward forces that foster extremism.
(Photo: Getty Images)
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