▲ El Nino Phenomenon
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency, projected on the 8th (local time) that El Nino will continue to strengthen ahead of its expected peak in December.
In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO issued this outlook while warning that the current El Nino has the potential to be one of the strongest cases recorded since at least 1950.
It added, "El Nino is very likely to bring higher-than-average temperatures to a considerable part of the globe and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in different regions."
The WMO explained that the risk of such disasters increases as El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon, overlaps with the effects of human-induced climate change.
When El Nino occurs, characterized by rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, it changes wind, pressure, and precipitation patterns across the globe.
El Nino typically occurs every 2 to 7 years, and its duration usually ranges from 9 to 12 months.
Weather conditions oscillate between El Nino and its counterpart La Nina, with neutral conditions appearing in between.
The WMO stated, "Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are projected to rise to record-high levels from October to December 2026," explaining that the intensifying El Nino will impact economies, ecosystems, and local communities.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the WMO considers the probability of this El Nino persisting until February of next year to be nearly 100%, adding, "It could be one of the strongest cases since at least 1950."
She pointed out that El Nino is not a phenomenon that adds new heat to the earth, but rather one that releases heat stored in the ocean, explaining, "The ocean from which El Nino draws heat is the warmest we have ever measured. That means there is much more heat that can be released."
The intensity of El Nino is commonly indicated by the "Nino 3.4 index."
This is a deviation value showing how much higher sea surface temperatures are compared to normal levels (the 1993–2009 average) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific region (5 degrees south to 5 degrees north latitude, 170 degrees west to 120 degrees west longitude) called "Nino 3.4."
The Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature deviation value was +1.6°C in June, grew to +2.5°C in August, and is forecasted to reach approximately +3.7°C for the seasonal average from October to December.
If these predictions materialize, it will become the strongest El Nino on record.
The previous record for the maximum seasonal average was +2.6°C, recorded from November 2015 to January 2016.
Before this El Nino, an El Nino occurred from 2023 to 2024.
In terms of global average temperature, 2024 was 1.55°C higher than the pre-industrial average (1850–1900), making it the hottest year on record, with 2023 ranking second.
El Nino generally reaches its peak between November and February of the following year, but the resulting temperature spikes usually appear later.
AFP reported that this El Nino is already having a severe impact on some regions, pointing out that in Central America, drought is killing livestock and crops.
(Photo: Yonhap News TV & WMO homepage capture, Yonhap News)
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