Former USFK Commander: Pushing for Time-Based Wartime OPCON Transfer is 'Risky'

▲ Robert Abrams, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea

A former commander of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) stated on October 5 (local time) regarding the ongoing discussions between South Korean and U.S. military authorities over the wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer that meeting conditions is crucial, warning that pushing for the transition based on a predetermined timeline is risky.

Speaking on a podcast hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, former USFK Commander Robert Abrams said, "The conditions-based transition plan was established to strengthen both combined defense and deterrence."

"Once the conditions are met, we will have an incredibly strong combined military posture and deterrence," he added. "As a result, if deterrence and actual defense capabilities are significantly enhanced, the risk decreases."

Abrams stated, "A time-based plan fundamentally increases risk. This risk exists because operational shortfalls still remain within the South Korean military." He added, "If an arbitrary timeline is set and certain core military capabilities have not been secured, it becomes a vulnerability and actually weakens deterrence and defense against North Korea."

Abrams' remarks are interpreted as being in line with the stance of U.S. military authorities, who have consistently emphasized that the conditions for the OPCON transfer must be met.

He served as the commander of U.S. Forces Korea from November 2018 to July 2021.

During a U.S. congressional hearing last year, USFK Commander Xavier Brunson presented the first quarter of 2029 as the target timeframe for meeting the transition conditions.

However, the South Korean government has internally judged that the OPCON transfer could be wrapped up as early as next year or the year after next.

While acknowledging that he understands the desire to move quickly to secure sovereignty, Abrams noted, "My view is that the voices emphasizing sovereignty imply a desire for unilateral actions by a South Korean-led military."

"I think we need to understand that such a move would signify the end of the current bilateral cooperative process," he emphasized.

Furthermore, Abrams claimed that the South Korean government previously asserted in 2020 that 92 percent of the conditions for the OPCON transfer had been met, stating, "That implies it was fully achieved, but to be blunt, that is not true. At the time, that figure fell far short of 92 percent."

He also stressed, "I remain relatively confident that there are still many shortfalls."

Along with this, Abrams raised the possibilities of future OPCON transfer, a potential reduction of U.S. forces in Korea, and the subsequent risk of North Korean miscalculation.

"As things unfold, the U.S. has been clear about its commitment to providing vital but limited forces moving forward," he said, adding, "I believe signals are being sent that there will be some changes to force posture inside South Korea."

Abrams continued, "The biggest causes for the resumption of hostilities are the three 'misses': misunderstanding, miscalculation, and mistake," expressing concern that "right now, there is plenty of room for North Korea to potentially misunderstand or miscalculate."

He noted that the decision to transfer OPCON "will be made by politicians and diplomats," while adding, "Field commanders must continue to provide the best military advice on how to reduce risk and enhance deterrence and defense. That is the role of the military."

(Photo: Yonhap News)

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