▲ Iranian ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz
Middle Eastern crude oil exports have recently nearly recovered to levels seen before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, CNN reported on September 29 (local time), citing a Wall Street report.
According to the report, JPMorgan's global commodities research team, led by Natasha Kaneva, estimated in a recent report that Middle Eastern crude exports are averaging 17.5 million barrels per day.
JPMorgan explained that this figure combines crude exports through the Gulf (Persian Gulf) and the Red Sea, equivalent to 98% of pre-war volumes.
Energy transport volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also recovered significantly.
Marine data provider Kpler analyzed that crude oil and petroleum product transport volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day last week.
Considering that pre-war daily transport stood at 17.1 million barrels, this indicates that crude transport through the strait has recovered to 77% of normal levels.
Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, assessed that given the substantial transport volumes passing through the strait, Iran appears to be losing its control over the waterway.
Analysts suggest that the sharp recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports is due to the effectiveness of the "crude shuttle service," which has emerged as an emergency transport method.
The crude shuttle service refers to a method where tankers fully loaded with crude or refined products slip out of the Strait of Hormuz—which is under Iranian surveillance—with U.S. military escort, and then supply export volumes through ship-to-ship transfers in relatively safe waters.
This method mirrors the covert ship-to-ship transfer techniques that Iran or Russia have used to evade sanctions.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been operating a crude shuttle service since April, and Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, recently expanded the application of this method.
Saudi Arabia has also restarted pipelines that had suspended operations due to drone strikes, resuming crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Saudi Arabia had previously completely halted pipeline operations and crude exports via Yanbu port after being hit on September 11 by a drone attack presumed to be carried out by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.
Amid the continued crude exports using shuttle tankers and news of Saudi Arabia resuming Red Sea crude exports, supply concerns eased, causing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures to plunge 3.5% on September 29.
The recovery in Middle Eastern crude transport is expected to act as a factor that weakens Iran's bargaining power in using control over the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in negotiations.
As U.S. President Donald Trump rejected a "seven-day plan" proposed by Iran, U.S. and Iranian officials continued indirect talks on September 28 and 29 under Qatari mediation to restore end-of-war negotiations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Previously, Iran presented demands to the U.S. side last week, including lifting the maritime blockade against Iran, unfreezing assets, granting exemptions from oil sanctions, and halting hostile acts on all fronts including Lebanon.
Iran's stance is that if the U.S. fulfills these demands, it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.
In an interview with U.S. media outlet Axios, President Trump referred to Iran's proposal by saying, "That is not the deal I want," and remarked toward Iran that they "overplayed their hand."
Experts point out that using shuttle ships under U.S. military escort is costly and carries risks, meaning it is only being utilized as a temporary alternative and has long-term limitations.
Another point of concern is that oil market supply and demand rely heavily on the release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to cover the global crude supply shortage.
U.S. strategic petroleum reserve inventories have fallen below 284 million barrels, reaching their lowest level in 44 years since 1982.
The fact that petroleum product transport volumes still fall short of pre-war normal levels is also a factor keeping prices of refined products such as diesel high.
JPMorgan estimated that Middle Eastern refined petroleum product exports remain at about 58% of pre-war levels.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average retail price of diesel in the U.S. stood at $6.44 per gallon as of September 29, up $2.75 from a year earlier.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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