[Anchor]
Many of you probably felt frustrated this summer, wondering why rain didn't fall when it was forecasted, and poured down when it wasn't. It turns out that wasn't just a feeling. According to internal data obtained by our reporting team, the precipitation accuracy rate used to evaluate forecast precision was the lowest this year compared to the past 10 years.
Reporter Jeong Gu-hui has this exclusive report.
[Reporter]
On July 23, citizens carried umbrellas in their hands following a forecast predicting rain in Seoul, but the timing of the rainfall missed the mark.
[Noh Ji-su (July 23): It keeps changing by the hour, so I actually do not trust tomorrow's forecast and just check the weather right away.]
The next day, on the 24th, rain was forecasted continuously from early morning until 5:00 PM, but not a single drop of rain actually fell across all of Seoul.
According to internal data from the Korea Meteorological Administration obtained by SBS, the KMA's forecast accuracy rate from June to August, which is this summer, stood at 84%.
That 84% is calculated like this.
It accounts for cases where it was forecasted to be clear and was actually clear, or when rain was forecasted and rain fell, as well as instances where rain was forecasted when it was clear.
The forecast accuracy reflecting all results of these four cases is 84%.
However, the experience of citizens is somewhat different.
If we exclude days forecasted to be clear where public interest in the weather is relatively low, and calculate the "precipitation accuracy rate" focusing only on days when rain was forecasted or when rain actually fell without any forecast, this figure turned out to be 0.32 this summer.
This means it was right only about 3 times out of 10.
While a precipitation accuracy rate of around 0.5 to 0.6 is known to be the limit of modern science, this summer's rate hit the lowest among summers over the past 10 years, meaning forecasts were wrong exceptionally often.
[Kim Wi-shang / People Power Party Member (National Assembly Environment and Labor Committee): Although the Korean numerical weather prediction model has been improved six times, the latest version currently in operation has recorded lower performance than the initial version from six years ago. It seems there are quite a few aspects that cannot be sufficiently explained simply by saying prediction has become more difficult.]
The KMA explained that for July specifically, the forecast accuracy rate limited to days when it actually rained ranked second highest among the past 10 years.
The agency also stated that it will expand observation networks, including follow-up meteorological satellites, and introduce new prediction models to enhance forecast accuracy in order to do its utmost in disaster prevention.
(Photo: Yonhap News)
(Video Reported by Shin Dong-hwan, Kim Se-kyung | Video Edited by Jeong Yong-hwa | Design by Hwang Se-yeon)
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