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Gov't Sees 'Solid Economic Recovery,' Warns of Rising Uncertainties Over Middle East War and US Tariffs


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▲ Ministry of Finance and Economy

The South Korean government has maintained its positive assessment of the national economy, stating that a "solid economic recovery trend continues."

However, it noted that uncertainties surrounding the Middle East war and U.S. tariff measures have increased compared to the previous month.

In the September issue of the "Recent Economic Developments" (Green Book) released today (the 11th), the Ministry of Finance and Economy stated, "Recently, our economy continues to show a solid recovery trend, with a sharp increase in exports and improvements in domestic demand such as consumption."

The government maintained its positive economic assessment from the August issue, which stated that the "economic recovery trend is strengthening."

All-industry production in July remained at the same level as the previous month.

While declines were recorded in the service sector (-1.3% month-on-month, +3.5% year-on-year) and the construction sector (-1.1% month-on-month, -3.2% year-on-year), the mining and manufacturing sector posted an increase (+0.2% month-on-month, +3.6% year-on-year).

Advance indicators for the service sector in August showed that online sales increased by 12.9% from a year earlier.

However, the average daily stock trading value stood at 31.8 trillion won, lower than in July (43 trillion won).

Vehicle fuel sales also dropped by 14.3%, marking the steepest decline since April (-22.0%).

On the expenditure side, retail sales decreased (-2.4% month-on-month, -0.8% year-on-year), while facility investment increased (+7.5% month-on-month, +24.9% year-on-year).

Advance indicators for retail sales in August showed that domestic credit card approvals rose by 4.9% compared to a year ago.

The growth rate expanded from July (3.7%).

However, domestic sales of Korean-made passenger cars fell by 28.3%.

Exports in August surged by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by increased shipments of semiconductors, computers, and cosmetics.

The consumer sentiment index for August stood at 104.5, down 2.3 points from the previous month.

The number of employed persons in August increased by 184,000, widening the scale of job growth.

The consumer price index for the same month rose by 3.1%, expanding its upward pace compared to July (2.8%).

In the August financial markets, stock prices rose, the won-dollar exchange rate fell, and government bond yields increased.

The July housing market maintained an upward trajectory.

Housing sales prices increased by 0.35% from the previous month, expanding the growth rate compared to June (0.33%).

Jeonse (lump-sum housing lease) prices rose by 0.38%, showing the same growth rate as in June.

Regarding external conditions, the government assessed, "While the global economy continues to maintain a moderate growth pace, uncertainties related to the Middle East war and U.S. tariff measures have expanded somewhat."

This raised the level of vigilance against external risks compared to the August issue, which stated that "uncertainties persist."

The government further noted, "Pressures on people's livelihoods continue, including upward pressure on prices due to high oil prices and difficult employment conditions for vulnerable groups and sectors."

It also announced, "To minimize the impact of the Middle East war, we will make every effort to manage the supply and demand of key goods while seamlessly implementing major policy tasks for Chuseok livelihood stabilization measures, such as stabilizing prices of seasonal goods."

Regarding mid- to long-term responses, it stated, "We will swiftly push forward with the economic growth strategy for the second half of 2026 to address structural issues such as post-Middle East war strategies, rebounding potential growth rates, and polarization."

(Photo: Yonhap News)

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