▲ Song Won-seok, Executive Director of the Korean American Grassroots Coalition (KAGC), speaks at a seminar on key watchpoints for the U.S. midterm elections held at the Korea-America Congressional Exchange Center in Washington, D.C., on the 25th (local time).
An analysis has emerged that while public opinion favors the Democratic Party in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November due to low approval ratings for President Donald Trump, the Republican Party holds the advantage in terms of campaign funds and the electoral system.
Song Won-seok, Executive Director of the Korean American Grassroots Coalition (KAGC)—an organization dedicated to advancing the political power of Korean Americans in the U.S.—made the remarks during a seminar on the midterm elections held at the Korea-America Congressional Exchange Center in Washington, D.C., on the 25th (local time). According to Executive Director Song, as of the end of June, the Republican Party held 277 million dollars (380 billion won) in campaign funds, compared to 136 million dollars (190 billion won) held by the Democratic Party.
Comparing external campaign organizations, or super PACs, Republican-aligned super PACs have accumulated 929 million dollars (1.28 trillion won), while Democratic-aligned super PACs hold 336 million dollars (460 billion won).
The Republican Party's financial "ammunition" is overwhelmingly larger than that of the Democratic Party.
Following a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in June allowing the removal of limits on funds political parties can spend on candidate campaigns, the Republican Party is now positioned to provide even stronger financial support in competitive districts.
Song also explained that projections for securing House seats through redistricting favor the Republican Party, predicting that the GOP could pick up as many as 10 seats through the redrawing of districts.
Midterm elections generally take on the character of an interim evaluation of the incumbent president, making them typically unfavorable for the ruling party.
In the case of President Trump, the fact that his approval ratings have plunged to the 30% range following the prolonged war in Iran is expected to work as a favorable factor for the Democrats.
Song projected that there will be 20 competitive House districts and 4 to 5 competitive Senate districts.
He added that even if the Democrats recapture the House, it is likely to be by a narrow margin.
As for the Senate, he analyzed that if the election were held immediately, the 100 total seats would be evenly split 50-50 between the two major parties.
Within the U.S. Democratic Party, up to 12 candidates from the rising hardline progressive "Democratic Socialists of America" (DSA) faction—including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—are expected to win House seats.
He projected that if the Democrats recapture the House by a narrow margin, the bargaining power of these members within Congress will be further strengthened.
Along with this, Song suggested that the midterm elections need to be viewed not only through the number of seats secured by each party, but also from the perspective of party realignment with the 2028 presidential election in mind.
Depending on the results of these midterms, the direction of President Trump's core support base, MAGA (Make America Great Again) within the Republican Party, and how the power balance between moderates and progressives within the Democratic Party will take shape are expected to influence the future direction of U.S. politics, he explained.
Song further predicted that if the Democrats recapture the House, they would likely seek to pressure President Trump through state investigations by forming special committees.
However, given that a two-thirds majority is required in the Senate, he viewed the possibility of President Trump's impeachment as small.
Similarly, he added that even if the midterm elections lean heavily toward defeat, the likelihood of President Trump declaring a state of emergency to implement an "American-style martial law" is slim.
Nevertheless, he noted that President Trump could attempt to use executive authority to pressure election administration managed by state governments.
Regarding the reelection prospects of Korean-American members of the U.S. House of Representatives, he projected that Marilyn Strickland (Democrat, Washington) and Dave Min (Democrat, California) are positioned for stable reelections.
As for Representative Young Kim (Republican, California), he predicted her reelection is uncertain as she is competing with Representative Ken Calvert (Republican), a powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense.
Song also classified the gubernatorial races in Georgia and Michigan—states with heavy investments by South Korean companies—as competitive contests.
The governors of Georgia and Michigan currently belong to the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively.
(Photo: Yonhap News)
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