00:00 Intro
00:35 Trump under immense pressure ahead of November midterm elections
01:40 Trump's "security blanket": Glamorous key-hole aide shakes up political circles
02:39 Trump facing "lowest approval ratings"—Is a US-North Korea summit the breakthrough?
05:27 Is Kim Jong Un ultimately the variable?
Will they actually meet? First, here is what US President Donald Trump has to say.
[Donald Trump / US President : (Are you planning to meet Chairman Kim at the end of this year?) Yes, I plan to do so.]
We should also hear what North Korea has to say. North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un's mouthpiece, Workers' Party Department Director Kim Yo-jong, issued a statement, and it is ambiguous. She said, "I know nothing about communication between the leaders of the US and North Korea," and "Perhaps this is the only issue I am not aware of," while adding, "The relationship between the two leaders is as wonderful as thought." There is plenty of room for interpretation. It must be intentional. Let's break it down one by one.
1. Trump under immense pressure ahead of November midterm elections
First, Trump's determination for a US-North Korea summit is strong. Above all, the midterm elections on November 3 are just over 70 days away. The sentiment in the US is that "it will not be easy for the ruling Republican Party to win," with forecasts predominating that "they will lose the majority to the Democratic Party, especially in the House elections." If they lose the midterm elections, it will become practically difficult for Trump to run state affairs as he pleases for the remaining two years. Naturally, he wouldn't want that. However, he is bogged down by the war with Iran. He spent money without winning, failed to achieve victory, hasn't even brought up the topic of denuclearization, and on top of that, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, international criticism is widespread. Gas prices have also spiked. As of this month, the US nationwide average gasoline price is around $4.08 to $4.1 per gallon. Right before the outbreak of the Iran war, the average was $2.98. That is an increase of nearly 40%. In the US, where people cannot go anywhere without a car, gasoline prices serve as the most intuitive indicator for gauging economic conditions.
2. Trump's "security blanket": Glamorous key-hole aide shakes up political circles
There are several other noises as well. The national debt has also exceeded $40 trillion for the first time. Recently, a so-called "switching private planes" incident occurred, which snowballed into another controversy. This was because of aide Natalie Harp, a former pro-Trump broadcast anchor who boarded the plane together. As it became known that she prints and delivers articles for Trump to read and even participates in drafting social media messages, nicknames such as "key-hole power" and "shadow advisor" have followed her. The New York Times even sarcastically referred to Harp as "Trump's security blanket," mentioning that Trump calls her "Sweetie." Recently, rumors even surfaced that Harp exerted influence on the resignation of spokesperson Karoline Leavitt. Trump's sensitive reaction to related questions from reporters further fueled the controversy.
[Donald Trump / US President : Fake news! You are fake news. You are loud and obnoxious. Fake news, be quiet. Be quiet!]
3. Trump facing "lowest approval ratings"—Is a US-North Korea summit the breakthrough?
Public opinion within the US is naturally unfavorable. Trump's recent approval rating hit 33%, the lowest of his second term. Therefore, Trump needs a new event. That a US-North Korea summit is that event is the common analysis of US media and experts. Talk is now emerging about holding a summit on the occasion of APEC to be held in Shenzhen, China, in November. If the realization of the summit is finalized ahead of the midterm elections, it can be used as an opportunity to enjoy an approval rating rebound effect. From Trump's perspective, how many cards does he have to throw until election day? Some analysts even suggest that this schedule could be pulled forward to October, right before the midterm elections, staging a so-called "October surprise" event. Showing how desperate Trump is, he specifically mentioned for the first time that North Korea possesses 57 nuclear weapons.
[Donald Trump / US President : Chairman Kim has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons. We should have never let that happen in the first place. It was something that should have never been allowed. If I were president, that wouldn't have happened. But anyway, he got his hands on them.]
He avoided answering when asked if he is pushing for North Korea's denuclearization.
[Donald Trump / US President : Well, I don't want to talk about that, but as you know, I have a great relationship with Kim Jong Un.]
Why is this important? Because it can be interpreted as a message that, in order to meet Kim Jong Un, Trump might recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. The official position of the United States is "the denuclearization of North Korea." This still remains unchanged. However, North Korea drew a line early on, stating, "There is absolute no discussion on denuclearization." Therefore, the speculation is whether Trump, in order to meet Kim Jong Un, will recognize the reality of North Korea's nuclear possession, eliminate only the ICBM threat to secure the safety of the US mainland, and then emerge claiming to have "eliminated the North Korean nuclear threat." Of course, some analyses suggest that if Trump recognizes North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, the global non-proliferation regime would collapse, making it difficult in reality. Former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, a key figure behind the "Hanoi no-deal," criticized, "North Korea's threat is growing with Trump's help," and added, "If attention is not shifted away from North Korea to something else, Trump's next social media post might be 'Flying to Pyongyang.'" US media outlets are now even using expressions like "Trump is clinging to Kim Jong Un." Predictions are also being raised that Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the US next month, at which point Trump will ask Xi for assistance. Earlier, following the "no-deal" at the Hanoi US-North Korea summit in February 2019, Trump met Chairman Kim four months later at Panmunjom. I was at the Panmunjom site back then; there were dozens of US reporters following them. Although it was a meeting without substance, the box office-level spectacle was undeniable. Trump has thus shown that he can meet even without results if necessary.
4. Is Kim Jong Un ultimately the variable?
However, Chairman Kim Jong Un also knows what we know. Unlike North Korea, the US must have already painfully realized through previous summits that Trump cannot do everything. Above all, the crucial point is that North Korea in 2026 is vastly different from 2018 and 2019, when the first and second US-North Korea summits were held. The framework has completely changed. In 2018 and 2019, China and Russia participated in international sanctions anyway. Now, through participation in the Russia-Ukraine war and Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang, the North Korea-China-Russia alliance has been tightly solidified. The economy has also improved significantly compared to the past. From Kim Jong Un's perspective, it would be better to leave a slight opening like now and watch what more Trump has to offer. He might demand fundamental solutions to hostile policies toward North Korea, such as the suspension of South Korea-US joint military exercises, alongside the recognition of a nuclear-armed state. Depending on the situation, while offering moderate lip service, he cannot rule out the possibility of meeting after watching the results of the US midterm elections, provided Trump does not become a lame duck. Since they are not the ones in a rush, Trump is. The ball now seems to be in Pyongyang's court, not Washington's, and time appears to be on Chairman Kim Jong Un's side.
(Reported by Jeon Byeong-nam | Produced by Shin Hee-suk | Video by Oh Jung-shik | Video Editing by Ahn Jun-hyeok | Graphics by Yook Do-hyun | Produced by SBS Digital News)
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