The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has sharply raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2%.
This is a 0.7 percentage point increase in just three months from the 2.5% projection announced in May.
The institute analyzed that semiconductors accounted for 0.6 percentage points of this upward revision.
[Kim Mi-roo / Head of Macroeconomic and Financial Policy Research, Korea Development Institute (KDI): "Of the 0.7 percentage point upward revision, about 0.6 percentage points can be attributed to the rise driven by semiconductors and their ripple effects. While there is the direct increase in semiconductor exports, there is also the facility investment made to produce semiconductors, and a slight upward revision in private consumption resulting from income growth thanks to semiconductors."]
Due to factors such as rising semiconductor prices, this year's current account surplus is also estimated to reach a record high of $360 billion.
However, KDI pointed out that there are limits to how much this semiconductor super-boom can translate into the actual economic conditions felt by the public.
First, the forecast for this year's increase in the number of employed persons was lowered by 60,000, from 170,000 to 110,000.
While semiconductors have a significant impact on exports and facility investment, their share of total employment is low, making their employment-inducing effect relatively small.
[Park Da-bin / Job Seeker: "I know that semiconductor companies are building factories in various places and hiring really large numbers of people, but for liberal arts majors, they are often being replaced by AI these days, and hiring only happens when positions open up..."]
The point is that because economic conditions outside the semiconductor sector are poor, the majority of citizens cannot feel the "semiconductor boom."
[Self-employed Business Owner: "Conditions are bad elsewhere, so honestly, if you look at manufactured goods suppliers and places like that, companies are almost on the verge of collapse right now."]
KDI emphasized that because an over-reliance on the semiconductor industry can increase the volatility of our entire economy, we must simultaneously foster the competitiveness of other industries while improving structures so that the semiconductor boom can lead to a tangible improvement in everyday economic conditions.
Additionally, KDI cited the prolonged war in the Middle East, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies, and growing financial market volatility as persistent risk factors for the economy.
(Reported by Chae Heesun, Video Filmed by Lee Jae-young, Video Edited by Yoon Tae-ho, Produced by SBS Digital News)
※
Copying, redistribution, and unauthorized use in AI training are strictly prohibited.