▲ U.S. Patriot air defense missiles
The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 8th (local time) that the ongoing war with Iran has depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles to a "worrying level," forcing the drawdown of supplies deployed in Asia and Europe.
The newspaper pointed out that this weapons shortage not only weakens U.S. military power in these regions but could also create conditions for China and Russia to take bold actions.
Having bombarded Iran for nearly six months, the military has consumed thousands of high-cost missiles that rely on global supply chains for precision parts and take years to manufacture.
In addition, the U.S. military's inventory of air defense missiles has hit rock bottom while defending against Iran's retaliatory strikes.
This has led to delayed weapons shipments destined for Asia and Europe.
While the U.S. government is reportedly trying to ramp up weapons production, the NYT projected that rebuilding the inventory of Patriot air defense missiles—of which more than 1,500 were expended in the Iran war—could take more than two years.
Two U.S. officials told the newspaper that current stockpiles of these missiles stand at fewer than 1,700.
Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), described the depletion of weapons stockpiles as a "generational ruin of conventional deterrence," warning that "this situation cannot help but have a major impact on Chinese and Russian calculus."
Knowing that it will take the U.S. years to rebuild its military might, China and Russia could take highly "calculated" actions at a time of their choosing.
According to the NYT, Dan Caine, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, briefed U.S. President Donald Trump on the risks of the weapons shortage, but President Trump decided to push ahead with the strikes in the belief that the war with Iran would end quickly.
The White House and the Department of Defense are officially denying the weapons shortage.
However, the NYT pointed out that the fallout from the weapons shortage is already becoming apparent in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on the 5th that "the volume of air defense missiles provided by Western allies has dropped to one-third of last year's level," adding, "Seventeen people were killed by Russian missiles today, and their lives could have been saved if we had interception missiles."
When a reporter at the White House asked about Ukraine's requests for such missile support on the 6th, President Trump snapped back, "We need them too," and claimed that the U.S. military's weapons shortage was the fault of the previous administration's support for Ukraine.
According to CSIS, while it is true that the United States possesses large quantities of lower-tech weapons such as over 10,000 guided bombs, these must be dropped in close proximity to targets, exposing fighter jets to a high risk of enemy air defense networks.
Stockpiles of certain types of long-range assets with fewer such risks, such as ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles, were mostly depleted in the Iran war.
According to a U.S. official with knowledge of defense intelligence, China and Russia are closely tracking and estimating U.S. weapon stockpiles using public data as well as reconnaissance satellites.
They are reportedly aware that it will take time for the United States to replenish its weapon inventories enough to carry out specific operational plans.
This is why views are emerging that the longer the war with Iran drags on, the more advantageous it is for China and Russia.
Pointing to Taiwan, the NYT noted that "many long-range weapons essential in a war with China, such as Tomahawk missiles, have been transferred to the Middle East," and "hundreds of advanced air defense missiles have been sent from South Korea and other parts of Asia to the Middle East."
Citing U.S. officials, the report suggested that as the U.S. Department of Defense shifts reconnaissance assets to the Middle East and withdraws air defense forces, U.S. Forces Korea could become more vulnerable to a war with North Korea.
It also conveyed the mood that some U.S. officials in Asia are worried this phenomenon might lead South Korea and Japan—doubting whether they are protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella with conventional capabilities—to pursue their own nuclear weapons.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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