▲ Group BTS
Out of all K-pop idol groups that have debuted over the past 30 years, 45 percent disappeared within three years of their debut, and only 1.6 percent achieved million-seller status, which is considered a commercial success in the industry, according to a recent study.
Professor Kim Jung-sub of the Department of Cultural Industry and Arts at Sungshin Women's University announced the findings after conducting a comprehensive analysis of 1,182 idol groups that debuted over the past 30 years from 1996, considered the beginning of the K-pop idol industry, through the end of 2025. The study highlighted the prominent high-risk and winner-takes-all competitive structure of the K-pop industry.
"This research is the first of its kind to thoroughly examine 1,182 groups that debuted over the past 30 years using statistical analysis, cohort analysis, and in-depth expert interviews," Professor Kim said, attributing significance to the findings. "Through this, we have empirically identified the internal competitive structure and hit mechanisms of the K-pop idol industry, which has achieved global success."
According to the study results, an average of 39.4 teams debuted each year, comprising 19.8 boy bands and 19.6 girl groups. Their average lifespan was 4.12 years, which is 58.9 percent of the standard seven-year exclusive contract period.
Furthermore, the survival rate for the first three years after debut stood at 55 percent, meaning that 45 percent of all groups left the market after three years.
"Due to a unique industrial structure where market performance shown in the initial three years after debut dictates whether agencies continue their investments past the fourth year, a significant number of groups fail to complete their first exclusive contract period and end up concluding their activities or effectively disbanding," Professor Kim diagnosed.
However, he analyzed, "The three-year survival rate of idol groups was higher than the 41.5 percent three-year survival rate of general small and medium-sized startups, but lower than the 68.1 percent survival rate of government-supported startups for the same period. This shows that while the idol industry is inherently high-risk, public perception has sometimes been excessively negative. There is a need to objectively reassess investment risks for the development of the music industry."
The average lifespan of boy bands was 5.11 years, while girl groups averaged 3.13 years, showing that boy bands remained active for an average of 1.98 years longer.
This is interpreted as stemming from differences in the revenue models between boy bands, which secure a loyal consumption structure centered on a female fandom, and girl groups, which rely more heavily on public appeal and income centered on events and music streaming.
Among the idol groups that debuted over the past 30 years, 42 teams—accounting for just 3.55 percent of the total—recorded sales of "300,000 or more copies for a single album," a level of success that signifies breaking even.
Additionally, groups that achieved "1 million sales for a single album," which is counted as a symbol of commercial success, numbered 19 teams, or 1.61 percent of the total.
Only 7 teams (0.59 percent) surpassed 10 million in cumulative album sales, successfully building global fandoms and establishing solid intellectual property (IP) brand power. These groups are BTS, SEVENTEEN, Stray Kids, EXO, TWICE, NCT, and Tomorrow X Together (TXT).
"The success of BTS is not just a one-off, exceptional case; a 'post-BTS era' has formed, giving rise to subsequent globally popular groups, albeit in small numbers," Professor Kim interpreted.
For the sustainable development of the K-pop industry, Professor Kim suggested several policy tasks: introducing a long-term growth-oriented idol training system, establishing structures for second chances following failure, providing joint infrastructure support for small and medium-sized agencies, curbing reckless debuts through strengthened preliminary verification, and securing a balance between global expansion and domestic survival foundations.
(Photo provided by BigHit Music, Yonhap News)
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