▲ Strait of Hormuz
Reuters has analyzed that Iran is attempting to extract concessions from the U.S. Donald Trump administration over the Strait of Hormuz issue through a strategy of "calculated, limited escalation."
Reuters reported this analysis on the 3rd (local time), citing government officials and analysts from Persian Gulf nations.
According to the reports, Iran believes that by using Middle Eastern trade routes, maritime shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure as pressure points to steadily increase the costs of the standoff, it can outlast the United States in a war of attrition.
Iran's goal is reportedly to force the U.S. and its allies to conclude that the cost of containing the crisis outweighs accepting Iran's demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources indicated that if the U.S. fails to recognize an expanded role for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict could spread beyond the Persian Gulf region.
After demonstrating its capacity to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of global oil consumption passed before the war—Iran is signaling that no maritime bottleneck is exempt.
By threatening Red Sea navigation and Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, Iran is seeking to test U.S. patience while driving up the costs of protecting global trade.
A Persian Gulf regional source stated that it is Iran's calculation that if it expands the conflict and ramps up pressure, President Trump will ultimately be forced to make concessions.
"Trump thinks he can hit Iran hard and force them to the negotiating table, but they will not budge," the source said.
In particular, Iran sees an opportunity in the fact that President Trump, facing the U.S. midterm elections in November, is reluctant to get deeply entangled in another Middle East conflict.
According to Reuters, a senior Iranian source said that the Iranian leadership has concluded that "past attempts to show flexibility only yielded greater pressure from Washington," reinforcing the perception that leverage must be secured before meaningful negotiations begin.
The source stated that Iran's assessment is that "Trump interprets concessions as weakness and only responds to pressure."
President Trump stated on the 31st of last month that he had called off an imminent strike to secure an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and later said that talks with Iran would take place on the 3rd, but Iranian officials stated that they are not currently holding talks with the U.S.
At the core of the current conflict between the U.S. and Iran is the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Reuters, Oman has conveyed proposals from Gulf states to Iran, which include options such as voluntary user fees.
However, Iran is demanding administrative authority over the strait and the right to charge service fees to vessels, while the U.S. opposes fee collection, maintaining that Hormuz must remain an international waterway free from Iranian control.
Reuters noted that "Iran's pressure campaign has prompted consequences reflecting the logic of such a strategy," with regional nations and Western countries increasingly focusing on protecting trade routes and energy infrastructure rather than stepping up pressure on Iran.
An example illustrating this shift is the newly emerging Saudi-led maritime coalition.
According to Gulf sources, this is a defensive framework focused on escorting commercial ships, sharing intelligence, and protecting maritime trade routes, rather than directly confronting Iran.
While Iran cannot directly match U.S. military power, it can impose costs by forcing governments and navies into a defensive posture.
Whether in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, or elsewhere, every new threat increases the resources required to keep global trade flowing.
Reuters pointed out that this confrontation is essentially a war of attrition to see who can hold out longer.
Iranian leaders reportedly believe that Iran can withstand economic pressure longer than a U.S.-led coalition can endure repeated disruptions to global trade and energy markets.
This Iranian strategy also has diplomatic objectives.
By demonstrating that it can escalate the crisis when needed, Iran aims to secure favorable terms if and when negotiations eventually take place.
Reuters noted that "neither side appears willing to back down," leaving the risk that the strategy to maximize leverage could spiral into a conflict that neither side can fully control.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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